Global stocks just logged their strongest week of 2026 so far, powered by a fragile US‑Iran ceasefire, whipsawing oil prices, and a hotter‑than‑expected inflation print that kept bond markets on edge. Even after the bounce, major indices are still in the red year‑to‑date, so this feels more like a relief rally than a full‑blown trend change.

What’s happening 📰

• Best weekly gains of the year (so far)
  The S&P 500 is on track for about a 3.6% gain this week, its biggest weekly rise of 2026, with the Dow and Nasdaq also up more than 3% heading into Friday’s close. That follows last week’s move that snapped a five‑week losing streak for US stocks, marking a sharp shift from March’s drawdown.

• Ceasefire truce lifts risk assets
  Markets rallied after the US and Iran agreed to a two‑week ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, easing immediate fears over oil supply disruption. The ceasefire headlines triggered a global relief rally in equities, with travel and cyclicals bouncing, while energy names lagged.

• Oil whipsaws, energy stocks struggle
  Crude prices plunged below 100 dollars a barrel after the ceasefire, before rebounding close to that level as fresh tensions and supply concerns resurfaced. That whiplash saw energy stocks underperform, while consumer discretionary and industrials were among the best‑performing sectors, and most S&P 500 sectors finished higher on the day.

• Inflation surprise keeps yields elevated
  The latest US Consumer Price Index showed inflation running at about 3.3% year‑on‑year in March, the highest in roughly two years and above many expectations. The 10‑year US Treasury yield climbed to around 4.3%, as investors priced in the risk that the conflict‑driven energy shock could keep inflation sticky and delay any policy easing.

• Gold still a key safety valve
  In the background, gold remains close to record territory above 5,100 dollars an ounce, after a surge earlier this year driven by geopolitical risk, central‑bank buying, and doubts about policy credibility. The metal is already up high‑teens percent year‑to‑date, reinforcing its role as the go‑to hedge when investors worry about both war and inflation.

• Early earnings and AI headlines support sentiment
  On the micro side, early reporters like Levi Strauss beat earnings expectations with direct‑to‑consumer revenue growing in the mid‑teens year‑on‑year, hinting that pockets of consumer spending remain resilient. At the same time, Meta’s shares climbed around 2–3% after unveiling a new AI model, adding more fuel to the market’s favourite theme of the moment.

Why it matters 🤔

• Relief rally ≠ all‑clear
  A two‑week ceasefire is positive but temporary, and markets are effectively pricing in the hope that it evolves into something more durable. If talks break down or the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted again, oil could spike and risk assets may give back gains quickly.

• Growth vs inflation tug‑of‑war
  The combination of stronger‑than‑expected inflation and higher long‑term yields tightens financial conditions even as stocks rally on better geopolitical headlines. That tension means investors are walking a fine line between “soft landing” optimism and “stagflation” fear, which can make market moves sharper in both directions.

• Leadership is shifting under the surface
  With consumer discretionary, industrials and tech outperforming while energy lags, leadership has rotated away from the commodity‑and‑defensive mix that worked during the worst of the drawdown. Historically, these kinds of rotations often mark turning points in market narrative—from pure risk‑off to selective risk‑on.

• Safe‑haven demand hasn’t gone away
  Even as equities bounce, gold’s surge to record levels and persistent demand from central banks show that big money is still hedging against policy missteps and geopolitical escalation. That mix of “risk assets up, hedges also up” is a classic sign that confidence is improving, but not fully restored.

Opportunity 💡

• Lean into quality cyclicals, but keep duration in check
  With consumer and industrial names leading the latest leg higher, investors looking for opportunities might focus on high‑quality cyclicals with strong balance sheets and pricing power, rather than the most leveraged plays on reopening or travel. The inflation backdrop and higher yields argue for avoiding overly long‑duration, profitless growth names that are more sensitive to rate repricing.

• Treat energy as a volatility trade, not a one‑way bet
  The ceasefire‑driven sell‑off followed by a rebound in oil underscores that energy is now a geopolitical trading vehicle, not a simple macro bet. That lends itself more to tactical positioning (or options strategies) around clear catalysts than to “set‑and‑forget” exposure.

• Balance AI and defensiveness
  AI‑linked winners like large‑cap tech and select chipmakers continue to benefit from strong sentiment and product headlines, as seen in moves around Meta and chip‑related names this week. Pairing that with defensive income plays or gold‑linked exposure can help smooth the ride if inflation or geopolitical risk flares up again.

• Watch early earnings for guidance, not just beats
  Early reports—like Levi Strauss’ earnings beat and solid direct‑to‑consumer growth—suggest that parts of the consumer are holding up despite higher prices. The more important signal over the next few weeks will be management commentary on demand, margins, and pricing power as the earnings season ramps up.

Bottom line ✅

This week’s action looks like a classic relief rally: a ceasefire in a key conflict, a big bounce in risk assets, and a market eager to believe in a soft landing—even as inflation, yields, and gold all flash that the macro story isn’t fixed yet. For investors, the playbook is to participate selectively in the rebound—especially in quality cyclicals and AI‑beneficiaries—while keeping hedges and risk management front and center in case the ceasefire or inflation narrative turns.

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Disclaimer: This article constitutes the author’s personal views and is for entertainment and educational purposes only. It is not to be construed as financial advice in any form. Please do your own research and seek advice from a qualified financial advisor. From time to time, I have positions in all or some of the mentioned stocks when publishing this article. This is a disclosure - not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.

Every month, we will update a list of SG top dividends stocks that we are watching closely. We spend many hours to screen and curate the information.

The screener uses 6-component framework. Each component has specific scoring criteria designed to identify sustainable, high-quality dividend stocks.

The top 10 stocks yielded a total return (including dividends) of 14.9% in YTD.

We see some movements this month, with 4 new stock move to the top 10:

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March was a month of contrasts for the stock lists:

• 🇸🇬 SG dividends rebounded strongly, rising 7% in March as local income names regained momentum.

• 🇺🇸 US growth also delivered a solid 5% gain, supported by resilient earnings and still-healthy economic activity.

• 📉 The Tactical ETF sleeve fell 4.5%, with tech weakness weighing on performance as investors rotated out of the sector in favour of other areas of the market.

Macro backdrop: higher-for-longer, oil shock and rotation

Globally, markets are still digesting a “higher-for-longer” interest rate narrative after the US Federal Reserve’s March projections raised 2026 PCE inflation to about 2.7%, up from earlier forecasts, while leaving the policy-rate path broadly unchanged. This combination of sticky inflation and a cautious Fed has kept volatility elevated and made investors more sensitive to sector and style rotations.

At the same time, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed energy prices higher, fuelling concerns about stagflation and complicating central banks’ efforts to normalise policy. Oil’s spike has fed directly into headline inflation, and policymakers have warned that any further escalation could delay the timing and pace of rate cuts.

Singapore sits in a relatively enviable position in this environment. Private-sector economists have upgraded the Republic’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to about 3.6%, near the upper end of the Government’s 2–4% range, with inflation still expected to average a manageable 1–2%. A resilient domestic backdrop and steady labour market give local blue chips room to sustain earnings and dividends, even if global growth wobbles.

In equity markets, the big story so far this year has been a nascent rotation away from last year’s AI‑fuelled mega-cap tech leaders towards smaller caps and non‑tech sectors. Data for 2026 shows energy, materials, industrials and dividend payers leading, while technology has slipped into negative territory, underscoring how quickly sector leadership can change. This rotation is exactly the kind of environment where income and value strategies can quietly outperform while growth and tech consolidate.

SG Dividends: A 7% rebound

Against this macro backdrop, the Singapore dividend sleeve delivered the standout performance in March, climbing 7% for the month. This rebound comes after a choppy period in early 2026.

Two macro shifts helped dividends regain their footing. First, while the Fed has turned more cautious about cutting quickly, markets are no longer pricing in aggressive further hikes, removing the worst‑case scenario for high‑yield names with leverage. Second, the improved Singapore growth outlook, driven by manufacturing and trade, supports earnings for the STI heavyweights that anchor most dividend portfolios here.

In practical terms, March’s move reminds me why the Singapore income sleeve is the portfolio’s ballast. In an environment where cash yields remain attractive but inflation and policy uncertainty linger, a basket of local banks, defensives and selected REITs continues to offer a mix of 4–6% cash yield plus mid‑single‑digit upside when sentiment turns. Our strategy to hold the best 10 and rebalance monthly work so far. April’s Singapore dividends update will be coming on 11 April – don’t miss this month’s update.

US Growth: 5% gain in a tricky tape

The US growth bucket added 5% in March, a respectable result given the headwinds facing the broader growth and tech complex. While headline indices have been choppy, the underlying US economy has held up better than expected, with solid earnings and continued job growth supporting sentiment.

At the same time, the Fed’s latest projections show higher near‑term inflation but still‑positive real growth, reinforcing a “slow normalisation” rather than an imminent recession. That backdrop tends to favour quality growth — companies with real earnings, strong balance sheets and pricing power — over speculative names that rely on cheap capital.

The 5% gain suggests the portfolio’s US growth exposure is tilted more towards that “quality growth” cohort than the frothier corners of the market. This is important in a year when tech as a sector has slipped into the red, even as selected innovators continue to compound revenue and earnings. Rather than chasing the latest small‑cap AI story, the focus remains on businesses that can grow through different rate regimes. The April update for the US growth will be out on 18 April – don’t miss this month’s update.

ETF sleeve: -4.5% as tech drags

The main laggard in March was the ETF sleeve, which fell 4.5%, largely due to its tech‑heavy composition. This lines up with wider market data showing that tech has been one of the weakest sectors so far in 2026, after a blockbuster run in prior years. With investors rotating into cyclicals, value, small caps and dividend stocks, broad growth‑ or tech‑leaning ETFs have given back some of last year’s outsized gains.

Part of this is simply mean reversion: after the AI boom pulled forward a lot of future returns, even good companies need time for fundamentals to catch up with valuations. The other part is macro — higher real yields and uncertainty over the path of rate cuts disproportionately hurt “long‑duration” assets whose value is tied to cash flows far out in the future.

For this portfolio, the ETF sleeve’s underperformance is not a reason to abandon the strategy, but it does call for a closer look under the hood. If the ETF is overly concentrated in the largest US mega‑cap names, it may make sense to complement it with broader or equal‑weight exposure that benefits more from the current rotation into smaller caps and non‑tech sectors.

Portfolio read-through

Looked at in aggregate, March’s performance is exactly how a barbell portfolio is supposed to behave in a transition year. The Singapore dividend sleeve provided stability and upside as investors rewarded yield and resilience. The US growth sleeve participated in upside where fundamentals remain strong. The tech‑centric ETF absorbed most of the downside from sector rotation and valuation compression.

In a world of higher‑for‑longer rates, energy‑driven inflation risks and shifting leadership across sectors, I’m comfortable leaning into this barbell – anchoring the base with dependable local dividends while keeping targeted exposure to high‑quality US growth and global innovation through ETFs. The key over the next quarter will be to stay disciplined: trimming euphoria in any sharp tech rebound, recycling capital into underloved income names when spreads are attractive, and resisting the temptation to chase every macro headline.

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Disclaimer: This article constitutes the author’s personal views and is for entertainment and educational purposes only. It is not to be construed as financial advice in any form. Please do your own research and seek advice from a qualified financial advisor. From time to time, I have positions in all or some of the mentioned stocks when publishing this article. This is a disclosure - not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.

Global equities finally caught a break this week as Wall Street snapped a five-week losing streak, even as investors continued to wrestle with war headlines, expensive oil, and a “higher for longer” rate mindset. At the same time, a confidential IPO filing from SpaceX injected fresh excitement into risk assets, underscoring how AI and space remain the market’s defining growth narratives.

What is happening 📈

• US stocks staged a broad relief rally. The S&P 500 rose about 3.4% for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed roughly 4.4%, ending a five-week losing streak as hopes grew that the Iran war might de‑escalate and as earlier declines in oil prices helped sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also posted its first weekly gain in six weeks, rising close to 3%.

• Volatility stayed elevated but directional pressure eased. After several weeks of heavy selling that pushed the Dow and Nasdaq into correction territory and left the S&P 500 roughly 9–10% below its late‑January high, this week’s move looked more like a bounce within an already volatile regime than a clean trend reversal. The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, has been holding above 30, highlighting that geopolitical risk and rate uncertainty are still being priced aggressively.

• Oil remains north of 100 and extremely headline‑driven. US benchmark crude has been trading above 100 dollars a barrel, its first sustained move above that level since the 2022 Ukraine shock, as the Iran war disrupts supply routes and risk premia stay embedded in energy markets. Over the year to date, oil prices have surged by roughly 75%, making energy the standout outperformer across major asset classes.

• Gold and other defensive assets caught a bid. Gold prices climbed about 4% this week as investors sought hedges against both geopolitical shocks and the risk that inflation proves sticky. Treasuries saw modest yield declines as markets repriced the inflation and growth outlook, but yields remain materially higher than at the start of the easing cycle.

• The Fed is firmly on hold, and markets are pricing fewer 2026 cuts. The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5–3.75% at its March meeting and signaled that uncertainty around the Middle East and inflation remains elevated. Futures and prediction markets now imply a very high probability that rates will be kept unchanged at the April 29 meeting and only one or even zero cuts over the whole of 2026, a sharp comedown from expectations earlier in the year.

• Macro data are flashing stagflation risk. Recession‑probability models from several large forecasters have moved into the 30–50% range as growth indicators soften and the unemployment rate has ticked up toward the mid‑4s. At the same time, the spike in oil is expected to push key inflation gauges such as PCE back toward the mid‑3% range year-on-year, complicating any case for rapid rate cuts.

• SpaceX quietly filed for what could be the largest IPO in history. On April 1, SpaceX confidentially filed for an initial public offering with US regulators, reportedly targeting a valuation of about 1.75 trillion dollars and testing the waters for a level above 2 trillion dollars. The deal could raise up to 75 billion dollars, eclipsing Saudi Aramco’s 2019 listing and making it the biggest IPO ever if priced near those levels.

• The SpaceX story is really an AI and data‑infrastructure story. The proposed listing is expected to bundle Starlink (satellite internet), xAI (acquired in an all‑stock deal earlier this year), and X, the social network, into a single entity pitched as an orbital and AI data‑center powerhouse. Banks working on the IPO are reportedly being encouraged to buy subscriptions to the Grok AI chatbot, underlining how deeply AI services are being woven into the equity story.

• Breadth and leadership remain unusual. Energy stocks have returned more than 40% year-to-date, massively outperforming the broader equity market and signaling how concentrated performance has become in commodities and value‑tilted sectors. Meanwhile, large‑cap growth and the “Mag 7” have come under sustained pressure as rising yields and profit‑taking weigh on long-duration tech names, even though parts of the AI complex still see strong capital expenditure and demand.

Why it matters 💡

The combination of a relief rally in equities and still‑elevated volatility suggests investors are not yet convinced that the macro shock from the Iran war and the oil spike has been fully priced in. With the S&P 500 still well below its highs and credit markets tightening at the margin, this looks more like a pause in a correction than the start of a new bull leg.

A higher‑for‑longer Fed in the face of rising energy‑driven inflation means real rates could stay restrictive even if headline inflation wobbles lower from month to month. That in turn keeps pressure on highly valued growth stocks whose cash flows are far out in the future and makes earnings quality, balance‑sheet strength, and pricing power more important drivers of returns.

The potentially record‑breaking SpaceX IPO is a reminder that public markets are still hungry for exposure to AI, space infrastructure, and new data platforms, even in a choppy macro environment. A successful listing at or near the rumored valuation would crystallize a huge amount of paper wealth, re-rate comps across space, satellite, and AI ecosystems, and potentially pull investor attention back toward high-growth stories at a time when the macro narrative is increasingly defensive.

At the same time, history shows that mega‑IPOs often mark sentiment extremes in a given theme or sector. The largest debuts of past cycles frequently arrived late in a bull phase, when private valuations were most stretched and public investors were willing to pay up for scale and narrative. That does not guarantee poor long‑term returns, but it does mean price discipline and understanding of underlying cash-flow drivers matter more than ever.

Opportunity 🎯

For long‑term investors, the current setup favors upgrading portfolio quality rather than making big directional bets on where the index trades next week.

• Lean into balance‑sheet strength and durable cash flows. Companies with strong free-cash-flow generation, modest leverage, and genuine pricing power are better positioned if stagflation risks materialize and rates stay restrictive. In practice, that often means large, profitable firms in sectors like healthcare, select industrials, and certain parts of technology rather than unprofitable growth or highly levered cyclicals.

• Treat energy as both opportunity and risk. The energy sector’s spectacular year‑to‑date outperformance reflects genuine cash-flow leverage to higher oil prices, but also leaves it more vulnerable if the conflict cools and crude retraces. Investors looking at energy exposure may want to think in terms of position sizing and time horizon—using the sector as a partial hedge against inflation and geopolitical shocks rather than an all‑in macro bet.

• Look across regions, not just the US. Emerging markets like Korea and Taiwan have been relative winners this year as they benefit from AI‑related capital expenditure and diversified trade links. Selective exposure to markets with improving earnings revisions and less direct sensitivity to the Iran conflict could help diversify portfolios that are heavily concentrated in US mega‑caps.

• AI and space remain structural themes—but entry price matters. The SpaceX filing underlines how AI, satellite connectivity, and data‑center infrastructure are converging into an investable theme that spans semiconductors, cloud providers, launch services, and ground-segment equipment. Rather than trying to guess the eventual IPO pricing, public‑market investors can focus on “picks and shovels”—the hardware, software, and infrastructure providers that enable AI and space applications across many end markets.

• Use volatility intentionally, not reactively. With the VIX elevated and headlines driving intraday swings, this is an environment where disciplined rebalancing, staggered entry points, and—where appropriate and understood—options strategies can help manage risk and improve entry prices. For most investors, that means planning in advance how to respond to 5–10% pullbacks rather than trying to trade every headline.

Bottom line ✅

This week’s bounce is good news, but not an all‑clear: equities showed they can rally even as oil remains high and the Iran war grinds on, yet volatility, valuations, and the rate backdrop argue against complacency. The prospective SpaceX IPO crystallizes how powerful the AI‑plus‑infrastructure story has become, but it also raises familiar late‑cycle questions about how much future growth is already baked into prices.

For a long‑term investor, the playbook is to stay invested but selective—tilting toward quality balance sheets, resilient cash flows, and sensible valuations, while treating energy and AI/space exposure as risk‑managed allocations rather than story‑driven punts. In a market still ruled by geopolitics and policy expectations, time horizon and discipline are as important as stock picking.

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Disclaimer: This article constitutes the author’s personal views and is for entertainment and educational purposes only. It is not to be construed as financial advice in any form. Please do your own research and seek advice from a qualified financial advisor. From time to time, I have positions in all or some of the mentioned stocks when publishing this article. This is a disclosure - not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.

Global stocks extended their recent slide this week as the Nasdaq slipped into correction territory and the S&P 500 racked up a fifth straight weekly loss. A grinding war in Iran, surging energy prices, and a Federal Reserve that is firmly on hold combined to pressure richly valued growth and AI names, while pushing investors toward energy, commodities, and more defensive corners of the market.​

The most important story this week: a war‑driven energy shock is colliding with stretched tech valuations just as the Fed signals fewer rate cuts ahead, forcing a broader rethink of the post‑AI rally.

What’s happening 📉

• US indices stumbled again. The S&P 500 fell a little over 2% over the past five trading days and is down about 7% from its late‑January high, marking its fifth consecutive weekly decline and its worst monthly stretch in more than three years. The Nasdaq 100 dropped more than 10% from its recent peak, confirming a correction amid heavy selling in large‑cap tech and AI beneficiaries.​

• The Fed stayed sidelined – and sounded wary. At its March 18 meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% for a second straight time and projected just one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027, a shallower easing path than many investors had hoped for. Officials explicitly highlighted uncertainty from the Middle East conflict and signaled that higher oil prices could lift inflation expectations, stoking fears that the next move in rates could even be up, not down.

• War in Iran is roiling energy and safe havens. The conflict has disrupted an estimated 17.8 million barrels per day of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with roughly 500 million barrels already cut off, helping keep crude prices in the mid‑90s per barrel. Gold surged above 4,400 as investors sought protection against both geopolitical risk and the possibility of a longer‑lasting inflation shock.

• Sector rotation is well under way. Energy shares have been among the year’s standout performers as oil prices spike, while previously high‑flying technology and software names continue to lose altitude as investors question rich AI‑driven valuations. More cyclical and value‑oriented areas – including materials, industrials, and certain dividend‑paying “asset‑heavy” companies – have held up relatively better as capital rotates away from mega‑cap growth.

• Earnings were light, macro headlines heavy. This was one of the quieter weeks on the earnings calendar, with only a handful of names like PDD Holdings, Chewy, and Carnival on traders’ radar. Instead, price action was dominated by unscheduled developments around the war, moves in oil and gold, and ongoing commentary from Fed officials as markets priced out aggressive rate‑cut scenarios.

Why it matters 🧠

The combination of persistent inflation risk and elevated equity valuations leaves markets more sensitive to negative surprises. The Fed’s message that it is comfortable keeping rates steady while it watches how the Iran conflict feeds into energy prices and inflation expectations reduces the likelihood of a rapid easing cycle that many growth stocks were implicitly banking on.

At the same time, the S&P 500 is still trading at a valuation premium that assumes solid earnings growth and at least a few rate cuts, a stance that becomes harder to justify if energy‑driven inflation proves sticky or if the war drags on longer than markets currently discount. That is why even modest shifts in expectations for oil, growth, or Fed policy are producing outsized swings in richly valued areas like AI‑linked tech, while more reasonably priced sectors have been comparatively resilient.​

Historically, stretches of multiple consecutive weekly declines, like the five‑week losing streak now in place, have often coincided with spikes in volatility but not necessarily with the start of a deep recessionary bear market. Instead, they frequently mark periods when investors reassess leadership, with capital moving away from the prior cycle’s winners and toward sectors better aligned with the new macro backdrop.

Opportunity 💡

For long‑term investors, the current backdrop is less about trying to time every war headline and more about repositioning portfolios for a world where energy remains tight and rate cuts are slower to arrive. One angle is to look at high‑quality energy producers, midstream infrastructure, and broader commodity‑exposed firms whose cash flows can benefit from structurally higher oil prices – while keeping in mind the risk that any durable ceasefire could quickly knock prices lower.

Another potential opportunity lies in “asset‑heavy” companies and value sectors – such as select industrials, materials, and consumer staples – that have lower disruption risk from rapid AI adoption and are trading at more modest multiples than mega‑cap tech. Recent commentary from allocators highlights ongoing rotation away from concentrated bets in a handful of AI leaders toward more diversified exposure across sectors that can still benefit if nominal growth stays reasonably strong.

At the same time, the sharp pullback in high‑quality growth names may eventually set up more attractive entry points for investors who believe in the long‑term earnings power of AI platforms. Analysts remain constructive on companies like Nvidia, Alphabet, and Netflix, arguing that their competitive positions and monetization opportunities remain intact even if near‑term multiples compress. For many, that argues for disciplined approaches such as dollar‑cost averaging rather than all‑in bets on short‑term rebounds.​

Finally, the bid into gold and other perceived safe‑haven assets underlines their role as portfolio diversifiers when geopolitical risk collides with inflation uncertainty. Short‑duration bonds and cash‑like instruments also remain relatively attractive, offering income while reducing exposure to further valuation shocks if rates stay higher for longer.

Bottom line ✅

This week’s most important market story is that war‑driven energy shocks and a more cautious Fed are forcing investors to reassess the AI‑led rally, pushing the Nasdaq into correction and extending the S&P 500’s losing streak. The shift has accelerated a rotation away from expensive mega‑cap growth toward energy, value, and defensive exposures that can better withstand a world of higher‑for‑longer rates and geopolitical uncertainty.​

Looking ahead to next week, traders will watch US flash PMIs, jobless claims, and inflation‑expectations data, along with a handful of closely watched earnings reports from names like GameStop, Chewy, and Carnival, for clues about whether growth is cooling and how quickly the Fed might eventually feel comfortable cutting. In the meantime, the market narrative has clearly shifted from “when do the cuts start?” to “how much risk is already priced into tech and how durable is the energy shock?” – a question that will keep volatility elevated until there is more clarity on both the war and inflation path.

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Disclaimer: This article constitutes the author’s personal views and is for entertainment and educational purposes only. It is not to be construed as financial advice in any form. Please do your own research and seek advice from a qualified financial advisor. From time to time, I have positions in all or some of the mentioned stocks when publishing this article. This is a disclosure - not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.

Every month, we will update a list of US Growth Stocks with Strong Momentum that we are watching closely. We spend many hours to screen and curate the information.

The screener uses an quantitative framework that designed to identify sustainable growth, companies with strong moats, decent valuations and strong price momentum.

Ytd Feb, the top 10 stocks yielded a total return of -11.3%.

We see few movements this month, with 4 new stock move to the top 10:

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Equities spent the week grinding lower as investors tried to juggle three big forces at once: a grinding war in Iran, a near-vertical move in oil, and a Federal Reserve that isn’t in a hurry to cut rates.

The result: major US indices are down roughly 10% from recent highs, small caps are already in correction, and volatility has crept meaningfully higher.

📉 What’s Happening

• Indices are flirting with correction.
  The S&P 500 fell about 1.9% this week to around 6,506, its lowest close since September and roughly 10% below its record from four months ago.​
  The Dow dropped about 2.1% (roughly 981 points) to 45,577, while the Nasdaq also lost about 2.1% and sits roughly 9.7% off its high.​

• Small caps have already cracked.
  The Russell 2000 has officially entered correction territory, dropping more than 10% from its recent peak as investors dump economically sensitive names.​

• War-driven oil shock is back in the driver’s seat.
  Brent crude is up nearly 50% since the Iran conflict began, recently trading above 114–115 a barrel after fresh strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure and effective closure of key shipping lanes.​
  The International Energy Agency has called this the worst oil supply disruption in history, as the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck strands a big chunk of Middle East output.​

• The Fed stayed put – and signaled just one cut.
  The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5–3.75% in an 11–1 vote, citing sticky inflation and only slightly softer growth.​
  Its latest projections (the “dot plot”) now imply just one rate cut in 2026, tempering hopes for a faster easing cycle that markets had been pricing in before the oil spike.

• Market internals have deteriorated fast.
  The S&P 500 has now closed below its 200‑day moving average for the first time since last May, a sign that the uptrend has cracked.
  Only about 18% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50‑day moving average, and hedge funds dumped an estimated 9.6 billion dollars of US equities in a single day this week – the largest net selling since at least 2022.​

• Volatility is elevated, but not at panic levels.
  The VIX futures curve for late‑March shows roughly a 27% jump over the past month, keeping implied volatility above the “complacent” teens but still far from crisis highs.

• Single‑stock stories are adding pressure, especially in tech.
  AI bellwether Micron fell nearly 4% after guidance failed to live up to lofty expectations, contributing to a broader drag in megacap tech and AI‑linked names.​

🤔 Why It Matters

1. War + oil spike = renewed inflation risk.
A near‑50% surge in crude since the start of hostilities raises the odds of a second inflation wave via higher fuel and transport costs, just as central banks were hoping they were past the worst.​
If energy stays above 100 a barrel for long, it can erode consumer spending power and squeeze corporate margins, forcing the Fed and peers to keep policy tighter for longer.

2. The Fed is boxed in – and markets hate the message.
By holding rates steady and penciling in only one cut this year, the Fed effectively said: “We see risks from inflation and growth in both directions – so we wait.”
Equity investors had been betting on multiple cuts; repricing to a slower path helps explain why rate‑sensitive growth stocks and small caps are underperforming, while defensive sectors see relatively better support.

3. This is behaving like a textbook correction, not (yet) a crisis.
US stocks are down just over 10% from their early‑2026 highs, which technically puts the broad market into correction, but still well short of a 20% bear market.
Strategists like Ed Yardeni see the Iran war driving a 10–15% pullback – painful but historically normal, and potentially a reset of stretched valuations after the S&P started the year trading around 22 times forward earnings.

4. Positioning has flipped from “buy the dip” to “get me out.”
Earlier in the year, every wobble was met with aggressive dip‑buying at key moving averages; now, flows show systematic and hedge‑fund sellers dominating, and “buy‑the‑dip” demand showing up later and more cautiously.
That shift in psychology can deepen short‑term drawdowns, but it also means a lot of de‑risking has already happened – setting up more asymmetric upside once macro headlines stabilize.

💡 Opportunities

1. Energy and quality defensives are built for this tape.
With oil up nearly 50% since the conflict began and energy infrastructure under threat, integrated oil majors, refiners, and select oil‑service names are obvious beneficiaries and have already started to outperform broader indices.​
Goldman Sachs notes that while markets will likely weather the conflict, rising energy costs are a real headwind, and suggests investors tilt toward energy, quality value, and defensive sectors that can pass on inflation.​

2. Corrections in high‑quality growth can be entry points – not exit points.
The Morningstar US Market Index and S&P 500 have both dropped more than 10% from peaks, with technology leading the decline after an extended AI‑driven run.
For investors with multi‑year horizons, staggering entries into cash‑rich, structurally growing companies during 10–15% drawdowns has historically delivered strong forward returns – provided earnings hold up.

3. Global diversification still matters.
While US markets have corrected, they remain underpinned by AI infrastructure spending, resilient earnings, and the prospect of eventual rate cuts in the second half of 2026.
Regions directly exposed to oil exporters and the Middle East corridor (for example, some GCC and European markets) face a different mix of risks and opportunities, which argues for a diversified, global equity allocation rather than a single‑market bet.​​

4. Stay disciplined on risk management.
With volatility higher and news‑flow binary, tools like position sizing, staggered buying, and predefined stop‑loss or hedge levels matter more than macro guessing.
Professional flows show hedge funds already slashing risk; for individual investors, the key edge is usually time horizon and discipline, not speed.

✅ Bottom Line

The market is digesting a three‑way shock: a grinding war in Iran, the sharpest oil spike in years, and a Fed that’s in no rush to ease.
That mix has pushed US stocks into correction territory, cracked key technical supports, and flipped sentiment from “buy the dip” to “sell the rip.”
But history suggests corrections driven by external shocks and valuation resets often become opportunities, not the start of a structural bear market – especially when earnings remain resilient and central banks still have room to cut later.

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Disclaimer: This article constitutes the author’s personal views and is for entertainment and educational purposes only. It is not to be construed as financial advice in any form. Please do your own research and seek advice from a qualified financial advisor. From time to time, I have positions in all or some of the mentioned stocks when publishing this article. This is a disclosure - not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.

This week, markets were hit by a rare combo of an oil price shock, a weak US jobs report, and renewed questions around AI spending.

US stocks swung violently and ultimately finished the week lower, even as AI heavyweight Broadcom delivered standout earnings.​

📈 What’s happening

• Oil went vertical on Iran war fears.
  After US and Israeli strikes on Iran, crude spiked, with US oil ending the week around 90.90 dollars and Brent 92.69 dollars, marking the biggest weekly gain on record and a roughly 36% jump in just one week.​
  Earlier in the week, oil had already surged 7–9% on headlines about disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

• Stocks sold off into the weekend.
  The S&P 500 fell from 6,878.88 at the prior Friday’s close (Feb 27) to about 6,769.03 by March 6, a drop of roughly 1.6% for the week.
  On Friday alone, the Dow dropped 453 points (~0.9%), the S&P 500 fell 1.3%, and the Nasdaq slid 1.6%.​​

• A surprisingly weak US jobs report rattled investors.
  The US economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, versus expectations for a gain of about 50,000, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3%.​
  Treasury yields fell after the data, with the 10‑year drifting toward 4.13%, as traders reassessed growth and Fed-cut timing.​​

• Fear rotated money into defensives, energy, and defense.
  Airlines and travel names were among the hardest hit as higher fuel costs and Middle East disruption weighed on sentiment.
  By contrast, oil majors and defense contractors saw renewed interest as higher crude prices and geopolitical risk supported their earnings outlooks.

• Broadcom was the standout single-stock story.
  Broadcom reported Q1 revenue of 19.31 billion dollars, up 29% year-on-year, and non‑GAAP EPS of 2.05 dollars, beating analyst estimates.
  Management guided for 22 billion dollars of Q2 revenue (up 47% YoY) and highlighted that AI semiconductor revenue more than doubled year-on-year to 8.4 billion dollars, sending the stock up about 5% in after-hours and subsequent trading.

  ---

🤔 Why it matters

• Oil shock + weak jobs = stagflation worries.
  A sudden 30%+ weekly move in oil raises the risk that inflation re-accelerates just as growth data softens, a classic stagflation scare.
  That combination makes the Fed’s job harder: cutting rates too quickly risks reigniting inflation, but staying tight into weaker labor data risks a sharper slowdown.

• Market leadership is getting stress-tested.
  Before this week, the S&P 500 was only modestly positive for 2026 (around 0.5% year‑to‑date as of Feb 27), leaving little cushion against shocks.​
  The latest pullback, led by growth and tech names, shows how quickly sentiment can turn when investors question AI capex, export risks, and stretched valuations.​​

• Yet AI infrastructure demand still looks structurally strong.
  Broadcom’s 29% revenue growth and booming AI chip sales suggest that hyperscaler spending on AI hardware remains robust, even as public-market enthusiasm cools.
  That divergence—volatile AI stock prices vs. strong AI fundamentals—is likely to keep dispersion high within the tech sector.​​

• Volatility itself is now a key macro variable.
  The VIX spiked to around 23.75, reflecting a jump in demand for downside protection and signaling that investors are bracing for larger daily swings.​
  Elevated volatility tends to compress valuation multiples and reward balance-sheet strength, consistent cash flows, and “sleep‑at‑night” characteristics.​​

  ---

💡 Opportunity

• Energy: pricing power, but don’t chase every spike.
  Integrated oil and gas producers stand to benefit directly from higher realized prices and stronger cash flow, especially after a record weekly move in crude.
  However, if diplomacy cools tensions and shipping normalizes in the Strait of Hormuz, some of this risk premium can unwind quickly—favor phased entries and quality balance sheets over short‑term trades.

• Defense: geopolitical risk as a structural tailwind.
  With the Iran conflict adding to an already elevated global risk backdrop, defense spending looks more likely to rise than fall over the medium term, supporting order books at major contractors.
  For long-term investors, the key is not the headline of the week, but multi‑year budget trajectories and contract visibility.​

• Quality income stocks in the crossfire.
  Broad-market de‑risking often pulls down high‑quality dividend payers alongside more speculative names, even if their fundamentals are more resilient.
  This kind of tape can create opportunities to accumulate strong free‑cash‑flow, pricing‑power businesses at more reasonable multiples as investors rush for the exit indiscriminately.​​

• Using higher volatility to get paid.
  With the VIX in the 20s, option premiums on broad indices and liquid large caps are richer, improving the risk/reward for covered calls and cash‑secured puts—provided position sizing and margin are handled conservatively.​
  Income‑oriented investors can lean into selling volatility on names they’re happy to own long term, instead of trying to time short‑term macro headlines.​​

• AI enablers over AI hype.
  Broadcom’s print reinforces the case for picks‑and‑shovels AI winners—chipmakers and infrastructure providers with clear revenue visibility—versus more speculative application-layer stories.
  Pullbacks driven by macro fear rather than company-specific deterioration can be an entry point into profitable AI infrastructure names with disciplined capital allocation.​​

📌 Bottom line

This week was all about an energy shock colliding with softer growth data, forcing markets to rapidly reprice the path for inflation, rates, and earnings.
For investors, the playbook is less about predicting the next headline from the Middle East and more about positioning for higher‑for‑longer volatility—with quality balance sheets, durable cash flows, and selective exposure to structural themes like AI and energy at the core.

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Disclaimer: This article constitutes the author’s personal views and is for entertainment and educational purposes only. It is not to be construed as financial advice in any form. Please do your own research and seek advice from a qualified financial advisor. From time to time, I have positions in all or some of the mentioned stocks when publishing this article. This is a disclosure - not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.

Every month, we will update a list of SG top dividends stocks that we are watching closely. We spend many hours to screen and curate the information.

The screener uses 6-component framework. Each component has specific scoring criteria designed to identify sustainable, high-quality dividend stocks.

The top 10 stocks yielded a total return (including dividends) of 5.2% in YTD.

We see some movements this month, with 4 new stock move to the top 10:

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This week, markets wrestled with a viral AI doomsday report, mixed reactions to blockbuster Nvidia earnings, a $100B‑plus AI chip deal between Meta and AMD, and the start of Trump’s new 10% global tariff regime. The result: choppy index moves, a wobble in AI high‑flyers, and a slow rotation into less tech‑heavy parts of the market.

📊 What’s happening

• US indices: volatile, not collapsing.
  After big swings, the S&P 500 is roughly flat year‑to‑date and on track for its worst month since March, while the Nasdaq is down around 2.5% for 2026 and having its weakest month in nearly a year. The Dow is holding up better, up around 2% year‑to‑date, helped by its lower exposure to mega‑cap tech. Mid‑week, the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq all posted gains of about 0.8–1% as AI worries temporarily eased, but they gave back ground after another tech selloff later in the week.

• AI panic 1: Viral “AI unemployment at 10%” report hits software.
  A widely shared report from Citrini Research sketched a 2028 scenario where AI drives US unemployment above 10%, triggers loan defaults, and knocks the S&P 500 down more than 30%. Investors dumped software and other AI‑exposed “losers”, sending the US software index down over 20% year‑to‑date, while money flowed into AI “plumbing” like chips, data centers, and energy. Volatility picked up, with the VIX jumping into the low‑20s, well above its recent lows.

• AI panic 2: Nvidia crushes earnings… and still sells off.
  Nvidia reported fourth‑quarter revenue up 73% year‑on‑year and guidance that beat Wall Street estimates, reinforcing that AI demand is still booming. Yet the stock fell about 5–6% on the day – its worst drop in roughly 10 months – as investors questioned how long the AI spending boom can last and whether current valuations already discount perfection. CEO Jensen Huang pushed back on the “AI scare trade,” arguing markets are overreacting to fears that agentic AI will destroy software business models.

• Biggest single stock story: Meta’s $100B‑plus AMD chip deal.
  Meta signed a multi‑year agreement to buy around 6 gigawatts of AI compute from AMD, a package worth more than $100 billion if fully exercised. The deal includes warrants that could give Meta up to 10% of AMD’s equity, cementing AMD as a serious alternative to Nvidia in AI infrastructure. AMD shares jumped high‑single digits on the news, while it added another competitive overhang to Nvidia’s future pricing power.

• Macro wildcard: Trump’s 10% global tariffs quietly go live.
  After the Supreme Court struck down his previous tariff framework, President Trump imposed a new 10% global tariff under Section 122, effective 24 February, with a threat to lift it to 15% later. The move adds a broad tax on imports for up to 150 days, with some product‑level exemptions but no country carve‑outs. Markets mostly shrugged at the 10% rate – a step down from the 15% he flagged over the weekend – but see it as a modest drag on growth and inflation‑positive at the margins.

• Data: “Hot” wholesale inflation adds to jitters.
  Late in the week, stronger‑than‑expected US wholesale inflation (PPI) combined with tech weakness to push the S&P 500 down roughly 0.8% on the day, with similar losses in the SPY ETF. It doesn’t yet derail the broader disinflation trend – CPI earlier this month came in around 2.4% year‑on‑year, the lowest since mid‑2025 – but it is enough to keep the Fed cautious and bond yields volatile.

• Global view: Europe near records, Asia shrugs off tariffs.
  Europe’s STOXX 600 is sitting just below all‑time highs, up roughly 6–7% year‑to‑date after hitting record closes last week, even as trade uncertainty lingers. In Asia, South Korea and Taiwan are at or near record highs, helped by their chip giants’ strength amid the AI hardware boom, while broader indexes were mixed as investors digested the new US tariffs.

🔍 Why it matters

1. The AI trade is shifting from “anything with AI in the deck” to “who actually gets paid.”

The combination of a dystopian AI unemployment report, Nvidia’s “beat-and-drop” earnings, and Meta’s huge pivot to AMD underlines a rotation already underway: software and AI‑exposed business models are being repriced down, while AI infrastructure (chips, compute, energy, data centers) and diversified cash‑generators are holding up better. Markets are starting to treat AI as a real technology cycle with winners and losers, not a one‑way valuation escalator.

2. Earnings strength is no longer enough if expectations are extreme.

Nvidia’s numbers were objectively huge, but the stock still sold off because positioning and expectations were crowded on the upside. That’s a warning for the broader AI complex: even strong fundamentals can’t protect you if price already embeds years of flawless execution. This is classic late‑stage growth behavior – earnings “beats” that fail to send stocks higher.

3. Tariffs reintroduce a slow‑burn macro headwind.

A 10% blanket tariff functions as a broad tax on US consumers and import‑reliant companies, nudging up costs in sectors from autos to electronics. Markets didn’t panic – partly because the rate was lower than the 15% floated and because it’s time‑limited – but over months this can shave margins and complicate the Fed’s inflation fight. It also raises geopolitical risk premium, especially for export‑heavy Europe and Asia.

4. Under the surface, leadership is rotating – not disappearing.

Despite the AI wobble, global equities are still near highs, with Europe, small caps, and select cyclicals quietly doing the heavy lifting. The Dow outperforming the Nasdaq, and gains in more boring sectors like staples, healthcare, and industrials, show investors are rediscovering diversification rather than exiting equities altogether.

🎯 Opportunity

None of this is investment advice, but here’s how many investors are thinking about positioning around this week’s moves:

1. Tilt from AI “story stocks” to AI “picks and shovels.”

• De‑risk: Highly valued software names and business models that look structurally exposed to AI automation (legacy enterprise SaaS, some white‑collar services) are now being repriced with a higher risk premium.

• Re‑allocate: Some investors are rotating toward AI infrastructure – chips, data centers, networking, and power – where demand is more volume‑driven and contracts (like Meta–AMD) provide clearer visibility.

• Watch for dislocations: Pullbacks in high‑quality AI leaders with real earnings, cash flow, and competitive moats can be an opportunity to average in more sensibly rather than chase parabolic moves.

2. Use the tariff noise to stress‑test your portfolio’s trade exposure.

• Map which holdings rely heavily on imported inputs or export to the US, especially in autos, machinery, and consumer electronics.

• Some investors are re‑balancing toward domestically oriented names and companies with strong pricing power that can pass on higher input costs.

• On the flip side, tariff‑protected local producers and reshoring beneficiaries (infrastructure, logistics, certain industrials) can see incremental tailwinds over time.

3. Lean into diversification that doesn’t depend on AI doing all the work.

• The outperformance of the Dow versus the Nasdaq and the near‑record SToxx 600 suggest that balanced exposure across regions and sectors is back in vogue.

• Many allocators are building “barbell” portfolios: on one side, quality growth tied to AI infrastructure and automation; on the other, defensive compounders in healthcare, staples, utilities, and dividend payers that can grind higher even if AI sentiment stays choppy.​

4. Re‑assess risk rather than trying to time every headline.

• Volatility spikes – like the VIX jumping and intraday 1–2% swings – are a reminder to match position sizing and leverage to your real risk tolerance.

• Long‑term investors are using this phase to upgrade portfolio quality – swapping weaker, more speculative names for strong balance sheets, durable cash flows, and reasonable valuations, rather than trying to guess the next AI or tariff headline.

✅ Bottom line

• This week was about AI growing pains, not an AI collapse. Nvidia’s blockbuster results and Meta’s monster AMD deal show AI capex is still ramping, even as markets start questioning who really wins – and at what price.

• The AI trade is maturing. Markets are distinguishing between infrastructure winners and business‑model losers, and they are no longer rewarding any ticker with “AI” in the pitch deck.

• Tariffs and inflation are back as background risks. Trump’s 10% global tariff and hotter wholesale inflation remind investors that policy and macro still matter, even in an AI‑obsessed tape.

• For investors, the shift is from concentration to balance. The message from price action is clear: less blind faith in mega‑cap tech, more respect for diversification, quality, and valuation.

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Disclaimer: This article constitutes the author’s personal views and is for entertainment and educational purposes only. It is not to be construed as financial advice in any form. Please do your own research and seek advice from a qualified financial advisor. From time to time, I have positions in all or some of the mentioned stocks when publishing this article. This is a disclosure - not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.

Global equities just navigated a jarring mix of legal drama, softer growth, and lingering AI jitters – and still managed to finish the week higher. In the US, the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down President Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs flipped markets from red to green, helping the S&P 500 gain about 1.1% and the Nasdaq 1.5% for the week.

Under the surface, investors are digesting a slower US economy, sticky inflation, and the next wave of AI-related earnings, with Nvidia and Walmart now in focus. For now, the message from markets is: policy risk is back, growth is cooling – but the bull market isn’t broken.

What’s Happening 📊

• Tariffs overturned, markets cheer (for now).

  • The US Supreme Court ruled that Trump overstepped his authority in imposing broad “Liberation Day” tariffs using emergency powers, invalidating a swathe of import duties.

  • The ruling sparked an intraday reversal: on Friday, the S&P 500 rose about 0.7%, the Dow 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.9% as trade‑exposed names rallied.

  • Affected firms like Costco and Toyota are now eyeing the chance to recoup an estimated 170 billion dollars in levies already paid.​

• But a new tariff threat is already on the table.

  • In a press conference, Trump vowed to push for a new “10% global tariff” using different trade legislation, keeping trade uncertainty firmly alive.

  • The dollar slipped and transport stocks briefly outperformed as markets tried to reprice the new regime.

• Growth disappoints, inflation doesn’t.

  • US Q4 2025 GDP grew just 1.4% versus expectations around 2.5%, a sharp slowdown from 4.4% in Q3 – largely blamed on the record 43‑day government shutdown.

  • At the same time, the Fed’s preferred core PCE inflation measure came in hotter than expected, complicating hopes for rapid rate cuts.​

• From “AI scare trade” to partial recovery.

  • After two rough weeks – including the S&P 500’s worst weekly drop since November and a 2%+ Nasdaq slide on AI disruption fears – major indices finally snapped the losing streak.

  • This week, communication services and industrials led gains in the US, while defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities lagged, signalling a tentative rotation back into risk.​

  • Select tech names bounced: Alphabet climbed more than 2–4% on the day of the tariff ruling, and AI‑linked chipmakers like Micron moved higher on datacenter demand optimism.​

• The data‑and‑earnings conveyor belt keeps rolling.

  • Around three‑quarters of S&P 500 companies have now reported, with roughly 75% beating earnings expectations, above the historical average.​

  • Next up: Walmart and Deere – key read‑throughs on the US consumer and industrial capex – plus Nvidia, Salesforce, Snowflake and others as the next big AI reality check.

Why It Matters 🧠

• Trade policy risk is back at the center of equity pricing.
  The Supreme Court ruling delivered a short‑term relief rally for import‑heavy companies and globally exposed multinationals – essentially a one‑day unwind of some “tariff anxiety”. But Trump’s immediate call for a 10% global tariff resets the longer‑term question: how stable are global supply chains and corporate margins, really? Tariff policy can hit profitability, inflation, and earnings multiples all at once.

• The economy is slowing from “very hot” to “just warm”.
  The GDP miss shows that growth momentum is fading, even before the full impact of higher rates and political uncertainty bites. That matters for stocks because:

  • Too hot: the Fed stays hawkish, valuations compress.

  • Too cold: earnings estimates get cut.

  • “Warm but cooling” – where we seem to be now – keeps the soft‑landing narrative alive, but with less margin for policy or earnings mistakes.

• AI fears have shifted from FOMO to “who loses?”
  Recent weeks saw a 2 trillion dollar+ wipeout in software market caps as investors realised not every tech or services firm is a winner from generative AI. The selloff has spread from software into wealth management, insurance, real estate services, and trucking, as markets price in the risk that high‑fee, process‑heavy industries get disrupted first.
  This week’s bounce shows positioning had become stretched, but analysts still warn the “AI scare trade” may not be over.

• Market leadership is changing.
  Strategists point out that while mega‑cap tech and AI darlings are wobbling, international stocks, value names, energy, materials and non‑tech sectors with solid EPS growth are quietly outperforming year‑to‑date. That broadening of market breadth is usually healthy – but it also punishes concentrated, growth‑only portfolios.

Where’s the Opportunity? 💡

None of this is individual advice, but thematically this week highlights a few angles:

1. Diversification away from a single “AI winners only” bet.

   • The market has started to separate AI winners, potential losers, and over‑hyped passengers.

   • Quality non‑tech sectors with solid earnings – think industrials, energy, select financials and healthcare – have delivered stronger EPS growth than parts of tech, and have benefited from the rotation out of expensive software.

   • A portfolio tilted only to software or US mega‑cap growth is now explicitly a “disruption loser” risk trade – something to be sized deliberately rather than by default.

2. Leaning into broader equity breadth (carefully).

   • With large caps, mid caps, and small caps all positive this week, and growth, blend, and value all up, the tape is signaling more balanced leadership.​

   • Broad exposure via diversified equity indices (US + international) can capture this shift without trying to time every sector rotation.

3. Tariff‑sensitive names: from headwind to selective tailwind.

   • The Supreme Court ruling reduces a specific cost overhang for import‑heavy companies and global supply‑chain players – retailers, autos, transport, and some industrials.

   • However, Trump’s push for a new global tariff means this is not a clean, one‑way bullish story. The more obvious opportunities are in well‑capitalised, globally diversified firms that can re‑route supply chains and negotiate pricing power, rather than in highly levered or single‑country operators.

4. Preparing for the next AI earnings inflection.

   • Nvidia’s upcoming results are now a de facto referendum on the AI capex cycle, with hyperscalers signalling major increases in AI spend and Nvidia’s CEO calling demand for the Blackwell platform “off the charts”.​

   • Volatility around these prints can create short‑term overshoots and undershoots in AI bellwethers and related ETFs – useful for investors who rebalance systematically rather than chase headlines.

5. Fixed income as a shock absorber, not just a drag.

   • With 10‑year Treasury yields around 4.1% and the Fed likely still cutting later this year (but not urgently), high‑quality bonds are again behaving like a partial hedge when equities wobble on AI or policy scares.

   • For multi‑asset investors, that strengthens the case for keeping duration and credit quality intentional, rather than parking everything in cash.

Bottom Line 📌

This week’s action compressed three big stories into one tape:

• Tariffs – relief from a court ruling, replaced almost instantly by a new global‑tariff threat.

• Macro – a slower, but still growing US economy with inflation that’s not yet tame enough for the Fed to relax.

• AI – a market that’s finally pricing in losers as well as winners, after a long period where “AI on the slide” was enough to justify any valuation.

For investors, the message is less about calling the next weekly move and more about portfolio design: diversify your sources of return, don’t overpay for growth that’s now under AI scrutiny, and assume policy headlines – especially on trade – will keep driving short‑term swings.

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Disclaimer: This article constitutes the author’s personal views and is for entertainment and educational purposes only. It is not to be construed as financial advice in any form. Please do your own research and seek advice from a qualified financial advisor. From time to time, I have positions in all or some of the mentioned stocks when publishing this article. This is a disclosure - not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.

Every month, we will update a list of US Growth Stocks with Strong Momentum that we are watching closely. We spend many hours to screen and curate the information.

The screener uses an quantitative framework that designed to identify sustainable growth, companies with strong moats, decent valuations and strong price momentum.

Ytd Jan, the top 10 stocks yielded a total return of 6.1%.

We see few movements this month, with 4 new stock move to the top 10:

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A wild week on Wall Street ended with a historic milestone: the Dow closed above 50,000 for the first time ever, just days after a bruising tech and AI selloff shoved the S&P 500 briefly negative for 2026 and hammered the Nasdaq.

Behind the headlines, investors started to rethink the “AI lifts all tech boats” story. Amazon’s massive AI capex plans, a big miss from AMD, and weakening U.S. labor data triggered a sharp rotation out of crowded software and chip names, before a powerful rebound on Friday calmed nerves.

The big picture: earnings are still growing solidly, but markets are getting far more selective about who actually turns AI spending into profits. Volatility is back – and that can be a feature, not a bug, for long‑term investors.

📊 What’s Happening

• Indexes: milestone for the Dow, flat-ish week for the S&P

  • The S&P 500 slipped 0.10% for the week to 6,932.30, and is up about 1.3% year-to-date.​

  • The Dow Jones surged 1,206 points (+2.5%) on Friday to 50,115.67, its first-ever close above 50,000, while the Nasdaq jumped 2.2% to 23,031.21.

  • Despite Friday’s fireworks, earlier selling meant the S&P and Nasdaq still logged a losing week, after the S&P briefly turned negative for the year midweek.

• Tech and AI plays took a beating… then bounced

  • Early in the week, tech led markets lower, with the Nasdaq suffering its worst three-day stretch since last April as investors dumped crowded AI trades.

  • Software and chip stocks were hit hardest: a major software ETF logged eight straight down sessions, while chipmaker AMD plunged about 17% after earnings, dragging semis and AI-related names like Palantir, Micron, and AppLovin lower by 9% or more.

  • By Friday, chip stocks and broader tech staged a sharp rebound; a major semiconductor ETF climbed about 5% on the day, though it still ended the week slightly in the red.​

• Amazon’s earnings and AI capex shocked the market

  • Amazon reported Q4 revenue of about 213 billion dollars, up 14% year-on-year, but missed EPS estimates by a cent.

  • The real shock: management guided to around 200 billion dollars of 2026 capital expenditure focused on AI and related build‑out, compared with Wall Street expectations closer to 146 billion dollars.

  • Shares fell around 4% during Thursday’s session and another ~7% after hours, as investors questioned the near-term payoff from that spending binge.​

• Labor data flashed yellow and volatility spiked

  • U.S. data showed job openings at their lowest since 2020 and the worst January for layoffs since 2009, fueling fears that the labor market is cracking.

  • Stocks legged lower on the news: the Dow dropped more than 600 points, the S&P 500 fell about 1.4%, and the Nasdaq lost around 1.7% that day.​

  • The VIX volatility index jumped above 20, moving solidly out of the recent “complacent” zone.

• Under the surface: rotation and earnings strength

  • Even as mega-cap tech wobbled, cyclicals and small caps roared back in Friday’s rally: the Russell 2000 jumped 3.6%, while industrial names like Caterpillar and GE Aerospace saw their biggest one-day gains since April.

  • Earnings season is actually running ahead of expectations: roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies have reported, with Q4 2025 earnings growing around 11.9% year-on-year, marking the fifth straight quarter of double-digit profit growth.

• Crypto whiplash

  • Bitcoin followed the risk-on/risk-off rollercoaster, plunging earlier in the week before rebounding about 10% to trade back near the 70,000 level as Friday’s risk appetite returned.

💡 Why It Matters

• The AI narrative is maturing – and getting harsher

  • Markets are clearly shifting from “AI lifts everything” to “show me the cash flows.” Companies that pair AI hype with huge capex and uncertain returns (like Amazon’s 200 billion‑dollar spending plan) are getting punished in the short term.

  • At the same time, earnings data show broad, double‑digit profit growth across the S&P 500, which suggests the wider market isn’t breaking – but leadership may be changing.

• Crowded trades are being de‑risked

  • The steep, multi-day slide in software ETFs and AI-linked chips shows investors are de‑leveraging popular trades, not necessarily abandoning tech forever.

  • That kind of unwind can be violent but temporary – it often flushes out momentum money and leaves fundamentally stronger names at more reasonable prices.

• Labor market wobble cuts both ways

  • Softer job openings and rising layoffs increase the odds of further Fed rate cuts, which is usually supportive for equities and growth stocks over time.

  • But if the labor data continues to deteriorate, it raises recession risk, explaining why the initial reaction was risk‑off, with the VIX breaking above 20 and a broad selloff before Friday’s rebound.

• Market breadth is trying to improve

  • The outperformance of small caps and cyclicals in Friday’s rally hints at a healthier, more “normal” market where leadership is not limited to a handful of mega‑cap tech names.

  • If that trend sticks, diversified investors could benefit from broader participation instead of relying on a tiny group of AI champions.

🎯 Opportunities

None of this is investment advice, but here is how a diversified, long‑term investor might think about the setup:

• Reassess your AI/mega-cap concentration

  • After a multi‑year run, many portfolios are overweight a small cluster of AI and cloud names. This week’s action is a reminder that even “must‑own” stories can drop fast when expectations are sky‑high.

  • Consider whether your exposure is balanced between:

    • Proven AI beneficiaries with strong cash flow and pricing power (e.g. select cloud infrastructure, “picks‑and‑shovels” chip makers), and

    • More speculative names that are long on narrative but short on monetization.

• Look again at quality small caps and cyclicals

  • The Russell 2000’s 3.6% jump on Friday and big moves in industrial leaders show investors are starting to rotate into more economically sensitive, domestically focused companies.

  • Historically, in environments with moderate growth, easing rates, and elevated but peaking volatility, high‑quality small caps and cyclicals can offer attractive upside from depressed valuations.

• Use volatility spikes, don’t fear them

  • With the VIX back above 20, markets are officially out of “sleepy” mode. For long‑term investors, pre‑planned, rules‑based buying (like dollar‑cost averaging) during these spikes can be more effective than trying to perfectly time every dip.

  • The key is to pair any opportunistic buying with strict quality filters: robust balance sheets, recurring revenues, and clear paths to monetizing AI or other growth initiatives.

• Stay anchored to earnings, not headlines

  • Despite the noise, S&P 500 earnings are tracking stronger than expected, heading for a fifth straight quarter of double‑digit growth.

  • Over the long run, earnings drive returns far more than single‑week sentiment swings. Aligning portfolio decisions with fundamental trends rather than the latest AI scare or labor data print can help avoid whipsawing with every headline.

📌 Bottom Line

This week was a textbook reminder that markets can be both fragile and resilient at the same time. A tech‑led AI tantrum, weak labor data, and a spike in volatility knocked indexes lower – and then a single session was enough to push the Dow through 50,000 for the first time ever.

For investors, the message is less about calling the next move and more about positioning for a world where AI is real, but not every AI stock is a winner. Keeping portfolios diversified, leaning into quality during bouts of fear, and focusing on the underlying earnings engine – not just the narrative – looks more important than ever.

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Disclaimer: This article constitutes the author’s personal views and is for entertainment and educational purposes only. It is not to be construed as financial advice in any form. Please do your own research and seek advice from a qualified financial advisor. From time to time, I have positions in all or some of the mentioned stocks when publishing this article. This is a disclosure - not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.

Every month, we will update a list of SG top dividends stocks that we are watching closely. We spend many hours to screen and curate the information.

The screener uses 6-component framework. Each component has specific scoring criteria designed to identify sustainable, high-quality dividend stocks.

The top 10 stocks yielded a total return (including dividends) of 3.7% in Jan.

We see one movement this month, with 1 new stock move to the top 10:

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This week, the market served up a bitter pill for the tech-obsessed: artificial intelligence spending doesn’t guarantee artificial intelligence returns. Microsoft’s disappointing earnings report—despite crushing profit expectations—wiped $357 billion in market value in a single day, as investors questioned whether the company’s record $37.5 billion AI capex was actually paying dividends.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 hit the 7,000 mark for the first time in history, only to retreat as the week wore on.

What’s Happening 🔄

Let’s break down the four macro earthquakes shaking markets right now:

1. Microsoft’s $357 Billion Market Cap Destruction

On January 28, Microsoft reported quarterly revenue of $81.3 billion (up 17% YoY) and net profit of $38.5 billion (up 60% YoY), crushing consensus estimates on both earnings and Azure cloud growth (Azure grew 39% vs. 38.8% expected). Yet the stock plummeted over 7% in after-hours trading—the worst day since early 2020. Why? Because Wall Street realized something uncomfortable: Microsoft is sacrificing customer profits to fund internal AI moonshots.

The company disclosed that it could have achieved over 40% Azure growth by allocating all new GPUs to paying clients, but instead chose to reserve computing resources for internal initiatives like Microsoft 365 Copilot. This shift exposed a hidden vulnerability: approximately 45% of Microsoft’s $625 billion revenue backlog comes from OpenAI—a customer that now has explicit contractual freedom to use other cloud providers. The market punished this as a strategic misstep, essentially telling Microsoft: “Show us the money from AI, not just the bills.”

2. Healthcare Stocks Collapse on Trump’s Medicare Proposal

On January 27, the Trump administration proposed keeping Medicare Advantage payment rates nearly flat at just 0.09% for 2027—compared to Wall Street expectations of a 4-6% increase. The reaction was swift and brutal:

• UnitedHealth (UNH): Down 19.57% in one day, erasing $80 billion in market cap​

• Humana: Down 20%+​

• CVS Health: Down 11.46%​

• Elevance Health: Down 13%​

UnitedHealth—which holds roughly 30% of Medicare Advantage enrollment nationally—also provided disappointing 2026 revenue guidance, reporting a Medical Care Ratio of 89.1% (meaning 89 cents of every premium dollar goes to medical claims, leaving slim margins). The insurance industry warned that if this proposal stands, it could trigger “benefit reductions and increased costs for 35 million seniors.” This is a direct policy headwind that investors didn’t anticipate.​

3. The Fed Holds Steady, Signals No Rush on Rate Cuts

The Federal Reserve decided to pause its rate-cutting streak, holding the benchmark rate at 3.5%-3.75% on January 28. This marked the first pause after three consecutive quarter-point cuts in late 2025.

Most significantly, the Fed removed language suggesting that a weakening labor market posed a greater risk than inflation—signaling a more balanced approach to its dual mandate. Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted that rate cuts won’t resume until at least June 2026, and only if inflation cooperates. The message was clear: the cutting cycle is over for now.

4. S&P 500 Consolidates at 7,000

The broad market approached 7,000 for the first time on January 27, only to retreat as earnings volatility intensified. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 1.37%, with a 52-week gain of 14.29%. However, forward valuation concerns linger: the forward 12-month P/E ratio stands at 22.2x, above the 5-year average, as earnings projections for 2026 come under pressure.

Why It Matters ⚡

On AI: Spending ≠ Profits

Microsoft’s stumble delivered a humbling message: simply throwing billions at AI infrastructure doesn’t guarantee shareholder returns. By contrast, Meta announced it would nearly double AI spending to $135 billion and saw its stock rally 10% the same day Microsoft tanked. The difference? Meta’s AI investments directly enhance its ad-targeting algorithm, improving profitability quarter after quarter. Microsoft’s bets on Copilot and internal AI are unproven. The market has entered “show me” mode on AI spending. Narrative is dead. Execution is everything.​

On Healthcare: Policy Risk is Real

The Medicare proposal exposed how severely government policy can impair entire sector valuations. Insurance companies built financial models around 4-6% rate increases; a 0.09% bump (essentially flat) destroys ROI calculations and forces benefit cuts. This signals a protracted profitability squeeze for the insurance sector—precisely what investors feared when Trump returned to office. Political risk is now actively pricing into healthcare valuations.

On Rates: The Pause is Structural, Not Tactical

The Fed’s pause wasn’t a one-meeting hold—it signals that rate cuts won’t resume until mid-2026 at the earliest. This matters because tech valuations had priced in a lower-rate environment. With rates staying elevated longer, multiple compression risk persists for growth stocks, especially those without near-term profitability catalysts.

The Opportunity 💡

1. AI Winners Will Be Consolidators, Not Spenders

Instead of chasing companies burning billions on GPU farms, focus on firms using AI to enhance existing cash-generating businesses. Meta’s playbook—leverage AI for ad efficiency—is the template. Look for: semiconductor companies benefiting from GPU demand (NVIDIA, AMD), and cloud providers with diversified revenue bases beyond a single AI customer (AWS, Google Cloud).

Your opportunity: The market temporarily rewarded Meta’s stance on Jan 29. This narrative is gaining traction. Companies proving AI ROI in Q1 earnings (Feb-Mar) will outperform those still “investing.”

2. Healthcare: Look Beyond Insurers

UnitedHealth, Humana, and CVS are now structurally impaired by policy. But healthcare providers, medtech firms, and biotech companies developing cost-saving solutions benefit from the margin squeeze insurers face. Companies that help insurers reduce Medical Care Ratios below 85% become indispensable. Eli Lilly (weight-loss drugs), which reports next week, may see outsized demand as insurers seek profit drivers.

Your opportunity: Diversify healthcare exposure away from insurers into specialized pharma, medtech, and health IT (which helps insurers manage costs).

3. Fed Pause = Bond Opportunity

With rate cuts paused until mid-2026, intermediate and longer-duration bonds now offer reasonable yields without further downside risk. The 10-year yield is unlikely to fall precipitously if rates stay at 3.5%-3.75%. This creates a tactical bond window before the next rate-cut cycle.

Your opportunity: A 60/40 portfolio tilted slightly toward bonds (vs. 100% equities) may improve risk-adjusted returns given current valuations.

Bottom Line 📌

This week, the market delivered a brutal but necessary correction to Q4 2025’s bullish AI narrative.

The three key takeaways:

1. AI hype is over; results are in. Microsoft’s earnings proved that capital intensity and profit growth can diverge sharply. Investors will now ruthlessly penalize companies that spend big but deliver modest returns. This is healthy for market efficiency.

2. Policy risk is surging. The Medicare proposal showed that government intervention can instantly destroy $80 billion in value. Healthcare investors must now price in policy uncertainty. Conversely, sectors benefiting from policy (like defense, with Lockheed Martin rallying 4% this week on earnings beat) may see sustained tailwinds.​

3. Valuations demand execution. With a forward P/E of 22.2x and earnings growth expectations at 15% for 2026, the S&P 500 has zero margin for disappointment. Earnings season (continuing through Feb) is make-or-break. Companies beating on revenue and raising forward guidance will sustain rallies. Those missing guidance will face sharp repricing.

For your portfolio: The 7,000 S&P 500 level is a resistance point, not a breakout. Expect consolidation and volatility through February earnings. De-risk frothy positions, harvest gains on outperformers, and hunt for beaten-down value in healthcare (selective), bonds, and precious metals. The easy money from sentiment is gone. Now it’s a fundamentals game.

Upcoming This Week 📅

• Feb 3: RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) rate decision

• Feb 4: Alphabet (GOOGL) earnings – Expected 22.4% EPS growth to $2.63/share​

• Feb 5: Amazon (AMZN) earnings – Expected 5.7% EPS growth to $1.97/share​

• Approximately 25% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q4 results through early February

Track it: Keep an eye on Alphabet and Amazon guidance for 2026 capex. If they signal pullbacks in AI spending or better returns, expect a tech rally. If they double down on spending (à la Meta’s $135B commitment), the debate continues.

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Disclaimer: This article constitutes the author’s personal views and is for entertainment and educational purposes only. It is not to be construed as financial advice in any form. Please do your own research and seek advice from a qualified financial advisor. From time to time, I have positions in all or some of the mentioned stocks when publishing this article. This is a disclosure - not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.

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What’s going on here: You’ve hit a solid milestone: a fresh $10,000 in savings ready to be deployed. Now comes the classic tug-of-war for Singaporean investors. Do you stick with the tax-free, dividend-heavy comfort of the Singapore stocks? Or do you chase the high-octane, tech-fueled growth of the US market?

There’s no “right” answer, but there is a right answer for you. Here’s the breakdown.

The Home Ground Advantage (Singapore Stocks)

The Vibe: Steady, reliable, and boring (in a good way). Think of the Singapore market as your portfolio’s anchor. You generally won’t find the next Nvidia or Apple here, but you will find banks and REITs that act like rental properties—without the tenants calling you at 3 AM.

Why you’d pick it:

• The Tax-Free Sweetener: This is the SGX’s superpower. Dividends in Singapore are tax-free. When DBS or a local REIT pays out, you keep every cent.

• Currency Shield: Investing in SGD means you sleep soundly without worrying about the USD crashing against the SGD.

• Stability: The STI is dominated by old-school sectors (Finance, Real Estate) that churn out cash regardless of whether AI takes over the world.

The catch: Growth is sluggish. If you’re looking for a stock that doubles in a year, you’re in the wrong neighbourhood.

👀 Opportunity: If you want cash flow to pay the bills, start here. Check out our SG Top Dividends List for the consistent yields right now.

The Growth Engine (US Market)

The Vibe: Fast, massive, and volatile. The US market is where innovation happens. It represents over 40% of the global equity market and is the only place to get serious exposure to Big Tech, AI, and global healthcare.

Why you’d pick it:

• Capital Gains: This is the land of the “multi-bagger.” Companies like Microsoft and Apple offer growth trajectories that mature dividend stocks simply can’t match.

• Global Reach: Buying the S&P 500 isn’t just buying America; it’s buying a slice of the global economy, given how international these companies’ revenues are.

The catch: Uncle Sam takes a cut. As a Singaporean, you face a 30% dividend withholding tax on US stocks. That means US dividend investing is inefficient—you’re here for the price to go up, not the payouts.

🚀 Opportunity: If you have a 10+ year horizon, you need this growth exposure. Check out our latest US Growth List for high-momentum picks.

The Verdict: How to Split the $10k

Your allocation depends on your “Financial Season.” Here are three ways to play it:

1. The “Cash Flow King” (70% SG / 30% US)

• The Goal: You want passive income now.

• The Play: Dump $7k into high-yield SG REITs/Banks to secure a ~5% yield. Put the remaining $3k into a broad US index fund just to hedge against inflation.

2. The “Growth Builder” (20% SG / 80% US)

• The Goal: You’re young (or patient) and don’t need the money for a decade.

• The Play: Go heavy on the US. Put $8k into growth stocks or tech ETFs. Keep $2k in SG stocks purely as a defensive buffer or “dry powder.”

3. The “Sleep Well at Night” (50% / 50%)

• The Goal: Balance.

• The Play: Split it down the middle. Use your SG dividends to fund your future US growth purchases.

💡 The Takeaway

You don’t have to choose sides. The healthiest portfolios usually have both: a Singaporean engine to generate cash flow, and an American engine to build wealth. Look at your current holdings—if you’re heavy on tech, buy some boring SG banks. If you’re drowning in REITs, it’s time to look West.

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Disclaimer: This article constitutes the author’s personal views and is for entertainment and educational purposes only. It is not to be construed as financial advice in any form. Please do your own research and seek advice from a qualified financial advisor. From time to time, I have positions in all or some of the mentioned stocks when publishing this article. This is a disclosure - not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.

This week was everything investors shouldn’t want: whiplash governance changes, a semiconductor giant’s stunning underperformance despite industry tailwinds, and safe-haven assets hitting all-time highs. The S&P 500 posted its second consecutive losing week as geopolitical uncertainty and disappointing corporate guidance collided head-on. But by week’s end, markets caught a glimpse of reprieve as President Trump backtracked on European tariffs—at least for now.

📊 What Is Happening

The Greenland Drama Ends (Or Does It?) — President Trump spent the week weaponizing Greenland as leverage for tariff negotiations. On January 20, markets tanked as he threatened 10% tariffs on eight European nations (Denmark, Sweden, France, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland), escalating to 25% by June unless the U.S. could acquire Greenland. Then, on January 21 at Davos, Trump met with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and announced a “framework deal,” scrapping the tariff threats entirely. Stocks immediately jumped. The Dow climbed nearly 600 points, and all three major indices logged back-to-back days of gains as relief washed over Wall Street.

Intel’s Stunning Disappointment — While the market rallied on geopolitical news, Intel crushed investor hopes on January 23. The chip giant beat Q4 earnings estimates (reporting $0.15 EPS vs. $0.08 expected) but demolished forward guidance. Intel projected Q1 2026 revenue of $11.7–12.7 billion (consensus: $12.51B) and breakeven adjusted earnings versus analyst expectations of $0.05 EPS. The culprit? Data center revenue is expected to decline sequentially—a shocking miss given the AI boom. The problem stems from supply constraints, yield issues, and advanced packaging bottlenecks at Intel’s cutting-edge 18A fabs. Shares plummeted 12–16% in a single day, erasing nearly $31 billion in market cap—Intel’s worst day since early 2024.

Gold Hits All-Time High — While stocks churned, precious metals soared. Gold climbed to an all-time high of $4,987.30 per ounce this week, capping its best week since 2020. Silver crossed $100/oz for the first time. The rally reflects classic safe-haven demand: geopolitical uncertainty (Greenland threats, tariff chaos), weak U.S. dollar dynamics, and investor anxiety over corporate execution. Gold is up 11.35% this month alone and 79.24% year-over-year.​

Broader Market Damage — The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all posted consecutive weekly losses. Markets whipsawed between relief (geopolitics) and anxiety (earnings disappointments, small-cap weakness). Alaska Air Group bucked the trend, beating earnings and posting a 5% gain Friday on strong premium seating demand. However, small-caps (Russell 2000) lost momentum, tracking for their worst week in six weeks.​

💡 Why It Matters

Volatility = Opportunity Cost — This week’s wild swings underscore a harder truth for investors: political risk is now priced as a material asset class. Tariff announcements don’t just affect trade; they hit equity risk premiums overnight. For a week, European exposure became toxic; then it wasn’t. This tail-wagging-the-dog dynamic increases volatility and rewards market-timers while punishing disciplined long-term investors.

Intel’s Failure Exposes an AI Narrative Problem — Here’s the uncomfortable reality: Intel has all the right pieces but can’t execute. Despite being “sold out” of server CPUs and commanding record demand for AI chips, Intel is losing share to AMD due to manufacturing bottlenecks. For a company betting its entire future on foundry services (selling chips to others), this Q1 guidance collapse signals that Intel isn’t yet a credible long-term supplier. If Intel can’t capture even its own demand, why would a major customer like Apple or Qualcomm risk external foundry work with them? The stock reaction wasn’t overblown—it was the market reassessing Intel’s execution risk in real time.​​

Safe-Haven Rally Questions Fed Assumptions — Gold’s record high isn’t just sentiment; it’s a real vote of no-confidence in growth and stability assumptions. Central banks are still buying, but the broader message is that investors are increasingly defensive. If the Fed stays “higher for longer” with rates while tariff uncertainty persists, gold’s argument—as a hedge against fiscal deficits and currency weakness—only gets stronger.

Earnings Season in Full Swing — Major banks reported this week (JPMorgan, BofA, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs), and consensus expectations remain resilient. However, Intel’s miss signals that guidance matters more than beats. Wall Street loves upside surprises, but it punishes forward-looking disappointments mercilessly.

🚀 Opportunity

1. Semiconductor Dislocation — Intel’s collapse offers a contrarian play. If yield issues ease in Q2 2026, Intel could be a 30–40% rebound candidate. The market is now in “show me” mode, which means any positive surprise on 18A yield or foundry customer announcements could trigger short-covering and fundamental buying. For dividend-focused investors, this isn’t ideal, but for growth-oriented traders: watch for Intel analyst day in H2 2026.

2. Sector Rotation into Defensive Plays — Gold’s rally signals that defensive sectors (utilities, healthcare, REITs, dividend stocks) may outperform in a volatile 2026. For your portfolio, consider rotating underweight growth tech into higher-yielding dividend stocks—especially Singapore dividend names or U.S. utility ETFs if tariff anxiety persists.

3. European Sector Opportunity — European stocks got hammered by tariff threats, then recovered on Trump’s reversal. This creates a potential value trap or a genuine bargain, depending on how seriously you take the tariff threat. HSBC, luxury goods exporters, and EU manufacturers could see outflows if tariffs re-escalate. For contrarians: oversold European banks might offer entry points if tariff tensions cool.

4. Gold ETFs for Hedging — If your portfolio is overweight growth/tech (QQQ, SPY), adding 5–10% to gold or gold mining ETFs (GLD, IAU) as a hedge makes sense. This week proved that gold isn’t correlated to equities when geopolitical risk spikes. At record highs, it’s not “cheap,” but it’s increasingly justified by macro uncertainty.

5. Earnings Quality Over Beats — As this week showed, hitting earnings estimates is the entry fee; forward guidance is the payoff. When analyzing stocks this quarter, focus on management commentary about Q2 and FY2026 guidance. Companies that raise guidance attract rotating capital; those that miss guidance get punished regardless of beat size (hello, Intel).

🎯 Bottom Line

**2026 is shaping up as the year of ** political theater and execution risk. **

Trump’s tariff threats will likely remain a persistent overhang—this Greenland episode won’t be the last shock. Meanwhile, companies face a harsh new reality: the AI boom is real, but supply chains are stressed. Intel’s collapse is a cautionary tale: even category-defining companies can stumble if they can’t deliver product.

For investors:

• Stay diversified. Geopolitical volatility is here to stay.

• Own some optionality—gold, defensive dividend stocks, and 10% dry powder for dips.

• Focus on execution, not headlines. Earnings guidance matters more than beats.

• Rotate into compounders with moats. If tariffs do escalate, domestic, low-leverage business models will outperform.

The market’s back-to-back losing weeks reflect genuine confusion. But by Friday’s close, it was clear: investors aren’t panicking yet—they’re repositioning. That’s healthy. Watch for the Fed’s next move and earnings revisions this quarter. That’s where the real directional signals lie.

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Disclaimer: This article constitutes the author’s personal views and is for entertainment and educational purposes only. It is not to be construed as financial advice in any form. Please do your own research and seek advice from a qualified financial advisor. From time to time, I have positions in all or some of the mentioned stocks when publishing this article. This is a disclosure - not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.

As Singapore’s interest rate environment continues to normalize and dividend yields remain attractive relative to fixed income alternatives, dividend stocks present a compelling opportunity for income-focused investors. This comprehensive guide evaluates 10 of Singapore’s most reliable dividend payers, offering yields ranging from 2.75% to 7.4%, with strong underlying business fundamentals and diverse sector exposure. The selection spans financial services, infrastructure, energy, consumer goods, and real estate, providing portfolio diversification while maintaining a core focus on sustainable dividend-paying capacity.

Why Dividend Stocks Matter in 2026

Singapore’s macroeconomic backdrop in 2026 presents a nuanced investment environment. With the Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA) declining from previous highs and the broader economic growth moderating, investors have increasingly redirected capital toward dividend-yielding equities that offer both income generation and capital preservation. The country’s stable regulatory framework, strong corporate governance standards, and the Singapore Exchange’s emphasis on transparency make SGX-listed stocks particularly attractive for dividend investors seeking both yield and downside protection.

The ten stocks profiled in this article collectively represent S$600+ billion in market capitalization and span multiple economic sectors, providing both cyclical exposure (shipbuilding, transport) and defensive characteristics (banking, healthcare real estate). Each company maintains established dividend policies with payout ratios that balance shareholder returns with reinvestment for growth.

#10: China Aviation Oil (SGX: G92)

Company Overview: China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corporation Ltd operates as a specialized jet fuel trading and supply company serving the global aviation industry. Incorporated in Singapore in 1993 and publicly listed since 2001, the company has positioned itself as a primary supplier of imported jet fuel to international airports across China, including Beijing Capital International, Shanghai Pudong and Hongqiao, and Guangzhou Baiyun airports. Beyond jet fuel, the company trades other petroleum products (fuel oil, crude oil, naphtha, gasoline), maintaining a diversified commodity exposure while leveraging core expertise in aviation fuel supply.

Business Operations: China Aviation Oil’s business model centers on physical commodity trading and supply chain management. The company sources jet fuel from global suppliers, transports the product through logistics networks, and delivers to end-customers (primarily international airports and aviation operators in China, supplemented by other Asian markets). The company generates margin through the spread between commodity acquisition costs and supply prices charged to customers, requiring operational excellence in logistics, contract management, and working capital efficiency. Ancillary operations (trading other petroleum products, oil-related asset investments) provide earnings diversification and capitalize on the company’s established relationships and commodity expertise.

Financial Performance: China Aviation Oil paid S$0.037 per share in dividends for 2025, yielding 3.04-5.7% depending on entry prices and representing a modest increase from S$0.03 per share in 2024. The payout ratio consistently ranges 29-41%, indicating material distributable earnings beyond dividend obligations. Five-year dividend history reflects cyclicality in aviation demand, particularly exposure to pandemic-driven aviation sector shutdowns (2020-2021) with subsequent recovery as international travel resumed.

Investment Rationale: China Aviation Oil presents a lower-conviction dividend opportunity than peers below, suitable for investors seeking cyclical commodity exposure with modest yield. The 3.04% yield combines with commodity price optionality: as global aviation demand recovers to pre-pandemic levels and potentially exceeds through 2026-2028, jet fuel trading margins could expand, driving earnings and dividend growth. However, the company’s small market capitalization (~S$1.1 billion), thin trading liquidity, and exposure to commodity price cyclicality create execution risk. The company’s operations concentrate heavily on Chinese aviation market dynamics, creating single-country concentration risk and exposure to Chinese regulatory changes affecting fuel subsidies or supply dynamics. Investors with specific conviction in global aviation sector recovery and comfort with commodity trading sector dynamics might allocate 1-2% of portfolio assets to China Aviation Oil. However, for generalist dividend investors, the stock offers limited advantages over the higher-conviction opportunities profiled above, and should constitute at most a satellite position within dividend-focused portfolios.

#9: Parkway Life Real Estate Investment Trust (SGX: C2PU)

Company Overview: Parkway Life Real Estate Investment Trust (PLife REIT) stands as one of Asia’s largest listed healthcare REITs by asset size, owning a diversified portfolio of 75 income-producing properties totaling approximately S$2.46 billion in value. The trust maintains strategic real estate exposure across Singapore, Japan, and France, with concentration in high-quality healthcare assets including private hospitals, nursing homes, and specialized medical facilities.

Business Operations: PLife REIT’s portfolio comprises three primary property categories: (1) private hospitals in Singapore (Mount Elizabeth Hospital, Gleneagles Hospital, Parkway East Hospital) generating rental income and positioning the trust to capture Singapore’s premium healthcare demand as wealth and demographics favor private medical consumption; (2) approximately 60 high-quality nursing home and care facility properties across multiple Japanese prefectures, serving Japan’s rapidly aging demographic and supporting elevated long-term occupancy rates; (3) 11 nursing home facilities across six regions in France, providing geographic diversification and exposure to European healthcare real estate secular tailwinds; and (4) specialist medical clinics in Malaysia (MOB Specialist Clinics, Kuala Lumpur), capturing regional growth in medical tourism and specialist healthcare demand.

Financial Performance: PLife REIT distributed S$0.1492 per unit in 2024, yielding 3.6-4.2% depending on entry price, with forecast distributions of S$0.15 per unit for 2025 (3.6% yield at S$4.15). Notably, distributions have grown incrementally but steadily, reflecting the trust’s ability to capture escalating healthcare demand and operational synergies. The payout ratio of approximately 95-100% (typical for REITs) reflects the trust’s structure: REIT regulations require distribution of 90%+ of taxable income, effectively mandating high payout ratios while limiting retained earnings for organic portfolio growth.

Investment Rationale: PLife REIT offers investors exposure to secular demographic trends (aging populations across Asia, growing middle-class healthcare consumption) through a professionally managed, income-yielding vehicle. The 3.6-3.9% yield, while modest relative to stocks profiled above, combines with visible long-term growth from Japan’s nursing home expansion (aging society supporting rising occupancy and potential rental escalation) and Singapore’s private healthcare demand (rising wealth supporting premium hospital utilization). The trust’s diversified geographic portfolio reduces single-country regulatory or demographic risk. However, REITs exhibit different return profiles than equities: dividend yield constitutes the vast majority of total returns, with limited capital appreciation optionality, requiring investors to reassess suitability based on liability structure (REITs may disadvantage non-institutional account holders due to distribution taxation treatment). Investors should incorporate PLife REIT for portfolio diversification and demographic megatrend exposure, with position sizing (5-8% of portfolio assets) reflecting REIT’s lower growth but stable, predictable cash generation characteristics.

#8: SBS Transit Ltd (SGX: S61)

Company Overview: SBS Transit operates as Singapore’s largest multi-modal public transport operator and the second-largest in Southeast Asia, with over 50 years of operational heritage. The company operates bus services (200+ routes, ~3,400 buses) and urban rail services (North East Line, Downtown Line, Sengkang/Punggol Light Rapid Transit systems, and the upcoming Jurong Region Line partnership). As a subsidiary of multinational land transport conglomerate ComfortDelGro, SBS Transit benefits from corporate support while maintaining operational autonomy in Singapore market.

Business Operations: SBS Transit’s revenue derives from two primary sources: contracted bus services from Singapore’s Land Transport Authority (generating stable, predictable revenue through fixed service payments and subsidy mechanisms) and rail operations (North East Line, Downtown Line, LRT systems) generating passenger fares and ancillary concession revenues. The bus business operates through the Bus Contracting Model, wherein SBS Transit competes for route packages against competitors, necessitating operational excellence to maintain market share. The rail business comprises fully-automated urban transit systems with minimal labor requirements post-construction, generating high-margin recurring revenue from escalating passenger volumes as Singapore’s residential population grows.

Financial Performance: SBS Transit’s 7.4% dividend yield ranks among the highest in Singapore’s equity market, reflecting extraordinary dividend growth and elevated payout ratios: the company paid S$0.2868 per share in 2024 (12.2% yield), with forecasted S$0.24 in 2025 (7.4% yield at current prices). The 2024 dividend represented 157% year-over-year growth, extraordinary even for cyclical operators, driven by operational synergies and cost absorption as the company’s portfolio expanded. The payout ratio, at 130% (2024), substantially exceeds sustainable norms and signals either extraordinary earnings growth or management’s confidence in near-term normalized earnings recovery.

Investment Rationale: SBS Transit presents the highest-yield opportunity among the ten stocks profiled, but with commensurate risk and structural challenges. The extraordinarily high 2024 dividend reflected one-time synergy benefits and operational improvements following acquisition integration, unlikely to repeat in full magnitude through 2026. The forecasted 7.4% yield for 2025, while elevated, appears more sustainable but still requires strong operational execution to maintain. The company’s upcoming Jurong Region Line contract (24 km elevated MRT line opening 2027 onward through a joint venture with RATP Dev) offers long-term revenue stability and leverages SBS Transit’s operational expertise, partially offsetting bus route margin pressure from new competitor entry. However, buses remain highly cyclical and dependent on government subsidy mechanisms and fare adjustment policies beyond management control. Investors should view SBS Transit as a high-yield opportunity suitable for income-focused portfolios requiring near-term cash generation, while recognizing that exceptional 2024 dividend levels likely prove unsustainable. A position in the 4-6% of portfolio assets range appears appropriate, with the understanding that dividend levels could normalize to 5.5-6.5% within 12-24 months as comparables stabilize.

#7: Food Empire Holdings Limited (SGX: F03)

Company Overview: Food Empire Holdings operates as a multinational food and beverage manufacturing and distribution conglomerate headquartered in Singapore. The company, publicly listed since 2000, has established a diversified product portfolio spanning instant beverages (MacCoffee brand, instant noodles, instant juices) and snacks distributed across over 60 countries. The company’s corporate strategy emphasizes brand building, geographic diversification, and progressive capacity expansion in high-growth Asian markets.

Business Operations: Food Empire manufactures and distributes instant beverages (core product category generating ~60% of revenue), instant noodles, frozen foods, and snack products through a portfolio of owned and licensed brands. MacCoffee, the company’s flagship instant coffee brand, has achieved market leadership positions in Russia, Ukraine, Vietnam, and Central Asia through localized marketing and distribution strategies. The company operates eight manufacturing facilities across five countries (Singapore, Russia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Kazakhstan), enabling local production and supply-chain efficiencies. Geographic diversification spans developed markets (Russia, Eastern Europe), growth markets (Vietnam, Kazakhstan, Central Asia), and South Asia (India, Bangladesh), providing earnings resilience against single-country economic cycles.

Financial Performance: Food Empire generated an annual dividend of S$0.08 per share (3.38% yield) as of August 2025, derived from a payout ratio of 48.08%. More significantly, the company’s dividend trajectory reflects underlying earnings expansion: the 2024 dividend of S$0.10 represented 127% growth year-over-year, though moderated to S$0.08 in 2025 (reflecting moderation in earnings growth as the company lapped strong prior-year comparables). Five-year dividend history suggests typical annual dividends of S$0.02-0.10, with significant volatility reflecting operational execution across diverse geographies.

Investment Rationale: Food Empire presents a dividend opportunity for investors seeking geographic and sector diversification outside Singapore’s financial services concentration. The company’s 3.38% yield, while modest, combines with exposure to secular growth in instant beverage and snack consumption across Asia—demographics favoring rising disposable incomes, urbanization, and changing consumption patterns. The company’s aggressive capacity expansion (multiple new manufacturing facilities across Malaysia, Kazakhstan, and Vietnam scheduled for 2025-2028 completion) suggests management confidence in sustained earnings growth, underpinning future dividend escalation. Vietnam market expansion and South Asia growth particularly offer high-single-digit to low-double-digit earnings growth potential through the decade. However, investors should recognize operational complexity: currency fluctuations, political risk in Eastern Europe, and execution risk on capacity expansion projects create near-term earnings volatility. A moderate position size (2-3% of portfolio assets) allows participation in secular consumption growth while limiting single-company concentration risk.

#6: Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd (SGX: BS6)

Company Overview: Yangzijiang Shipbuilding stands as China’s largest private shipbuilder and the world’s fifth-ranked shipbuilder by capacity. The company, listed on the Singapore Exchange since 2007, operates major shipyards across China’s Jiangsu Province with capacity exceeding 6 million deadweight tons (DWT) annually. Over the past two decades, Yangzijiang has systematized the transition from commodity ship construction toward specialized vessels (LNG carriers, dual-fuel carriers, very large ore carriers) commanding premium margins—a strategic repositioning that mitigated industry downturns while capturing secular demand for clean-energy vessel types.

Business Operations: Yangzijiang’s core business—commercial shipbuilding and marine engineering—generates revenue from constructing large container ships, bulk carriers, oil tankers, and increasingly, specialized clean-energy vessels (LNG, LPG, methanol carriers). The company has progressively moved up the value chain, transitioning from standard bulk carriers (low-margin commodities) toward technically complex, dual-fuel and LNG vessels commanding 15-25% price premiums. Beyond shipbuilding, Yangzijiang operates a diversified portfolio including ship leasing, trading logistics, and real estate—providing earnings stability during cyclical shipbuilding downturns.

Financial Performance: Yangzijiang’s dividend progression exemplifies leverage to recovering shipbuilding cycles: the company paid S$0.07 per share in 2024 (50% payout ratio) and announced S$0.12 interim dividend for 2024, implying forward annualized dividend of S$0.15-0.19, yielding 5.4% at current prices. Year-over-year dividend growth accelerated from 11.1% (2021-2022) to 84.6% (2023-2024) and 29.2% (2024-2025), reflecting sharply improving earnings as global shipping demand recovered and new ship order momentum accelerated. The company reported a record order book of $16.1 billion as of May 2025, with 193 vessels—providing approximately 2.5 years of production visibility at normalized build rates.

Investment Rationale: Yangzijiang presents a higher-risk, higher-reward dividend opportunity than the banking and utility peers profiled above. The shipbuilding industry cycles have historically compressed valuations during downturns and delivered outsized returns during recoveries, and Yangzijiang’s current order book suggests the recovery cycle has multiple years of visibility remaining. The company’s strategic focus on clean-energy vessel types (54% of new orders as of mid-2025) aligns with long-term shipping industry decarbonization mandates, providing secular tailwinds beyond cyclical shipping demand recovery. The 5.4% yield, combined with potential 20-30% annualized dividend growth through 2026-2027 (as the company’s record orderbook transitions to production and earnings expand), offers compelling total return potential for investors with sufficient risk tolerance for cyclical exposure. Investors should size Yangzijiang positions accordingly, as dividend sustainability depends on continued shipping demand recovery and new order momentum. A position ceiling of 3-5% of portfolio assets appears prudent for cyclical dividend payers of this type.

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This week, Wall Street witnessed something extraordinary: the biggest rotation out of mega-cap tech and into domestic small-caps we’ve seen since the financial crisis. The Russell 2000 surged 5.8% year-to-date, marking 11 consecutive days of outperformance over the S&P 500—the longest streak since June 6, 2008. While the major indices stumbled (S&P down 0.3%, Nasdaq down 0.6%), smaller stocks hit fresh record highs. This isn’t a blip. It’s a structural regime shift that could reshape your portfolio for the rest of 2026.​

🔄 What Is Happening: Three Forces Colliding

The Great Rotation Is Real

For years, the “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap tech stocks and AI darlings dominated returns. But this week exposed a critical problem: valuation extremes. The S&P 500 trades at roughly 26x forward earnings, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq sits even higher. The Russell 2000? Just 18x forward earnings—a 25-year gap that screamed opportunity.​

The rotation has institutional fingerprints all over it: $6.4 billion in net inflows flowed into small-cap stocks during 2025, and that momentum accelerated in January. Why? A “soft landing” economic narrative, Fed rate cuts that benefit borrowing-heavy small firms, and 100% bonus depreciation legislation passed last July that gives capital-intensive small businesses immediate tax breaks. Regional banks led the charge, up sharply on a steepening yield curve and renewed M&A appetite from mid-market companies.​

The “Battle of the Kevins” Reshapes Interest Rate Expectations

On Friday, President Trump dropped a bombshell: he prefers to keep Kevin Hassett as National Economic Council director—meaning he won’t be Fed Chair. In a stunning shift, Kevin Warsh surged to become the frontrunner in betting markets, now at 43¢ odds vs. Hassett’s 41¢ on PredictIt. This matters because Warsh brings “market credibility” (former Fed Governor, Morgan Stanley pedigree) without Hassett’s reputation as a Trump loyalist willing to slash rates aggressively.​

The market immediately repriced expectations: Treasury yields climbed to 4.23% on the 10-year note, signaling traders expect fewer rate cuts in 2026 under a Warsh Fed. This explains why bond traders took a hit and why mega-cap tech (most sensitive to high rates) underperformed.​

Wall Street’s Earnings Blowout (Mostly)

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley delivered spectacular Q4 results, posting combined earnings that smashed expectations. Goldman reported $4.6 billion in net income, up 12% year-over-year, with equities trading hitting an all-time record of $4.31 billion. Morgan Stanley wasn’t far behind: $4.4 billion net income (+18% YoY), with full-year wealth management revenues hitting a record $31.8 billion and $356 billion in net new assets.​

Investment banking revenues surged 47% at Morgan Stanley and 22% at Goldman, reflecting a boom in dealmaking throughout 2025. However, the overall earnings season is showing mixed signals: while 87.9% of S&P 500 companies beat EPS estimates, the revenue beats percentage is tracking below the historical average. Translation: companies are managing costs effectively, but top-line growth remains modest.​

Meta Bets the Ranch on Nuclear Energy

In perhaps the most visionary corporate deal of the week, Meta announced 6.6 GW of nuclear power agreements with Vistra, Oklo, and TerraPower to come online by 2035. This includes immediate purchases from existing plants and funding for advanced reactors still in development. The deal signals unambiguous conviction: AI data centers are consuming massive power, and nuclear is the only realistic solution for reliable, carbon-free baseload energy.​

Stocks soared: Vistra and Oklo surged over 15% on the news. Meta just eclipsed Microsoft and Google as the world’s largest corporate nuclear purchaser—a bragging right that also signals serious capital allocation discipline.​

Bitcoin Closes In on $100K (But Not Quite)

Bitcoin flirted with $98,000 this week, up a robust 8% in seven days. Polymarket is pricing in a 73% probability of BTC reaching $100K before month-end. The rally reflects easing macro concerns, growing institutional interest, and reduced selling pressure from long-term holders. However, resistance is stiff near the $97K–$100K zone, and order-book depth is down ~30% from 2025 highs, suggesting thin liquidity at key levels.​

💭 Why It Matters: The Stakes Are Enormous

Valuations Finally Matter Again

For three years, investors treated valuation like a relic of the past. “This time is different,” they insisted, dumping money into any AI-adjacent mega-cap. This week proved valuation gaps always revert—and the Russell 2000’s explosion is exhibit A. If this rotation continues, your 2026 returns will depend entirely on which sectors you’re overweighted: domestic small-caps and financials win; mega-cap tech loses.

The Fed Chair Matters More Than You Think

Powell’s term ends May 15, 2026. Warsh—the likely successor—will inherit an economy with sticky-enough inflation and unemployment that permadoves like Hassett would have struggled to cut rates as aggressively as Trump desires. Warsh gives Trump “credibility cover”: markets won’t panic at a Trump-influenced Fed because Warsh has deep Wall Street connections. But here’s the catch: you can’t count on 3-4% rate cuts in 2026 the way bond bulls were pricing in two weeks ago. Higher rates = tech and growth valuations under pressure, small-cap and dividend stocks in favor.

AI Infrastructure Is The Real Money Play (Not The AI Hype)

While ChatGPT headlines fade and AI stock euphoria cools, the actual capital is flowing to energy, semiconductors, and infrastructure. Meta’s $6.6B nuclear bet isn’t charity—it’s ruthless capital allocation. Building AI requires power; power requires nuclear; nuclear requires years of permitting and construction. The company capturing that secular trend (infrastructure, not software) will generate the real returns.

Tariff Uncertainty Is Crushing Business Confidence

A stunning 32% of supply chain managers have implemented layoffs—double the 16% figure from April. Two-thirds report cost increases of 10-15% or higher. But here’s the killer: businesses can’t plan long-term because no one knows what Trump’s next tariff move will be. A Supreme Court ruling on tariff legality could bring refunds, but it won’t restore the lost productivity, the administrative overhead, or the abandoned investment projects. This is a silent drag on Q1 2026 GDP growth that few analysts are pricing in.​

🚀 The Opportunity: Three Trades to Watch

1. The Small-Cap Trade Is Early (But Crowded)

The Russell 2000’s 5.8% YTD gain is spectacular—but it’s still a 25-year valuation discount vs. large-caps. Jefferies now targets 2,825 on the Russell 2000 by year-end, implying 5-10% more upside from current levels. The risk? This rotation can correct just as fast if inflation resurges or unemployment ticks up. Stick with quality small-caps (strong balance sheets, positive cash flow), not speculative “zombie” companies.​

2. Bank Stocks Have Real Earnings Leverage

Goldman and Morgan Stanley posted blockbuster numbers, but they’re not typical banks—they’re investment banking powerhouses that benefit from dealmaking. The real opportunity is regional bank stocks (KeyCorp, Regions Financial, etc.) that are repricing on a steeper yield curve and renewed lending demand. These trade at single-digit multiples on forward earnings, offer 4-5% dividend yields, and benefit directly from small-cap and M&A activity.

3. Bitcoin’s $100K Break Could Spark Retail FOMO

BTC at $97K is tantalizing the retail crowd. If it crosses $100K—a psychological milestone—expect viral headlines and retail inflows. This could provide a 3-6 month tailwind for crypto, crypto-adjacent equities (like MicroStrategy or Coinbase), and digital-asset ETFs. But remember: order-book depth is thin, so moves could be sharp in both directions.

⚡ Bottom Line: Prepare for Two Economies

The market is pricing in a “soft landing” scenario where rate cuts continue, inflation stays benign, and small-cap earnings accelerate. But the tariff situation is a silent time-bomb. If Trump escalates trade wars or the tariff courts rule against the administration, expect a sharp rerating of growth expectations and a potential return to mega-cap dominance.

For the next 4-6 weeks, the real action is:

• Rotation trade: Overweight small-caps, underweight mega-cap tech

• Rate bets: Warsh’s nomination likely means less aggressive cuts; favor dividend and value sectors

• Earnings surprises: Watch Netflix (Jan 20) and Capital One (Jan 22) for guidance on 2026 momentum

• Tariff clarity: The Supreme Court ruling could be a multi-hundred-basis-point event for risk assets

The era of “AI at any price” is officially over. Welcome to the era of valuation, cash flow, and domestic small-cap resurgence. Position accordingly.

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Disclaimer: This article constitutes the author’s personal views and is for entertainment and educational purposes only. It is not to be construed as financial advice in any form. Please do your own research and seek advice from a qualified financial advisor. From time to time, I have positions in all or some of the mentioned stocks when publishing this article. This is a disclosure - not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.

They say never trust a chef who doesn’t eat their own cooking. The same rule applies to finance. If I’m writing about it, I’m investing in it.

At Moneyunfiltered, transparency is the currency. I don’t just track markets; I put my capital to work in them.

But let’s be real—the investment landscape in January 2026 is noisy. Bitcoin is swinging around $90,000, US prosecutors are probing the Fed, and everyone is trying to figure out if AI is a bubble or the engine of the next decade.

To cut through the noise, I’ve split my personal wealth into three distinct baskets: Tactical ETFs, SG Top Dividends, and US Growth with Momentum. Here is the unfiltered logic behind why I hold these portfolios right now.

1. The Tactical ETF Portfolio: The “All-Weather” Core

The Goal: Balanced exposure with a strict safety brake.

The sheer volume of financial products available today is paralyzing—there are over 14,470 ETFs traded globally. Instead of getting lost in the noise, I stick to a strict 30-30-20-20 allocation designed to capture growth while hedging against disaster.

The Asset Mix:

• 30% QQQM (NASDAQ-100): This is my growth engine. With the AI spending spree hitting the bond market and tech stocks driving records, you simply cannot afford to be zero-weight US tech.

• 30% VWRA (FTSE All-World): My global safety net. This ensures I’m exposed to global rallies, like the recent record highs in South Korea, without betting the farm on a single country.

• 20% SGOL (Gold): The ultimate insurance policy. With Gold hitting records as Fed independence fears rattle markets, this portion protects my purchasing power.

• 20% TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bond): A hedge against economic slowdowns. As rate fears ease and bonds react to election chatter, this adds stability.

The Strategy (Momentum Filter):

I rebalance this portfolio every month. But I don’t just blindly buy. I check a momentum indicator for each ETF.

• Strong Momentum? I stay invested or top up to target weight.

• Weak Momentum? I exit that specific ETF completely and stay in Cash.

This rule prevents me from holding a falling knife. If the trend breaks, I’m out. This helps me reduce the risk by more than 60%!

Check out the latest weightage

2. SG Top Dividends: The “Quality” Income Engine

The Goal: Good yield without the “yield traps.”

Singapore is my anchor. It’s stable and it pays. But in 2026, blindly chasing the highest percentage is dangerous.

The Strategy (The 6-components Framework):

I don’t just pick random stocks. Every month, I run a rigorous screen to pick the Top 10 stocks based on a 6-components framework:

1. Dividends: Is the yield attractive relative to fixed deposits?

2. Performance History: Is the company growing, or is it a melting ice cube?

3. Valuation: Am I overpaying for this income?

4. Business Quality: Is the underlying business model robust?

5. Dividend Quality: Is the payout ratio safe, or are they borrowing to pay me?

6. Financial Health: Is the balance sheet strong?

Why It Matters Now:

We are seeing real opportunities in this space. For example, DBS and OCBC recently jumped and made record high. A simple yield screen might have missed the growth story, but our framework catches the combination of income reliability and business improvement.

3. US Growth with Momentum: Riding the Supercycle

The Goal: Aggressive capital appreciation using systematic rules.

This is where I take the gloves off. This portfolio targets the US market, specifically looking for the next big winners in the “$7 Trillion Data Center Boom” and beyond.

The Strategy (Quant + Momentum):

I remove emotion from the equation entirely.

1. Quantitative Screen: Every month, I screen the US market for high-potential growth stocks using strict quantitative criteria (revenue growth, earnings surprises, etc.).

2. Momentum Ranking: I then rank these survivors based on price momentum.

The Execution:

I buy the top-ranked stocks. If a stock loses its momentum, it gets cut at the next rebalance. This keeps me in names that are working right now—like the companies benefiting from the “AI spending spree”—and gets me out of stagnant positions quickly.

We don’t try to predict if “AI is a bubble”; we simply ride the stocks that the market is rewarding and exit when the music stops.

The Bottom Line

I don’t believe in a one-size-fits-all portfolio.

• Tactical ETFs provide a hedged, global foundation with a cash safety valve.

• SG Dividends generate income through a quality-focused 6-point inspection.

• US Growth chases pure upside using cold, hard data.

Consider giving MoneyUnfiltered a try.

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Here’s everything you get as a paid member

• 📈 SG Top Dividend List
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• 💵 US Growth with Momentum

  Rules-based filtering to US tech and growth names, capturing the upside with momentum without the emotional rollercoaster of picking individual winners. (worth $399)

• ^🏅 Tactical ETFs Rebalancing

  We took “skin in the game” literally. Every month, we shared our ETF Monthly Rebalancing weightage—that reduced risk by 60% in backtesting. (worth $199)

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Disclaimer: This article constitutes the author’s personal views and is for entertainment and educational purposes only. It is not to be construed as financial advice in any form. Please do your own research and seek advice from a qualified financial advisor. From time to time, I have positions in all or some of the mentioned stocks when publishing this article. This is a disclosure - not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.